Canadian Federal Election 2015

Drop by and talk about anything you want. This is where all cheese-related discussions should go
User avatar
Jamfalcon
Posts: 3329
Joined: 08 Aug 2011, 13:59
First Video: Killer Instinct
Location: Somewhat nearish Vancouver. Kind of.
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Jamfalcon » 06 Aug 2015, 20:08

I haven't had much to add to this thread, but I did watch the debate and find it interesting. Mostly just cemented the positions I already had, though - I really like the Green Party, but they have no chance of winning in my riding, which almost always votes Conservative. (Well, technically I'm in a new riding, but I expect this new one will vote similarly.) I could live with the Liberals if it meant the Tories losing, but I'd much prefer the NDP, and since they're the consistent second place in my old riding, it's a pretty easy choice.

And I agree, I'd be happy to see May leading one of the major parties - as a person, she's the one I'd be happiest to see in charge.

Oh, and I wanted to thanks to Arclight for all the information in this thread. I try to follow the news, but when I'm away from the internet for days at a time it can be tricky to keep up with all the goings on. :)
"Jamfalcon's a super weird name" - Graham

I wrote a book!
Image
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 06 Aug 2015, 22:16

Oh, my pleasure - I quite enjoy doing it. I'm glad you're finding it useful. :)

By the way, if you know the name of your riding (if you don't, you can find out here), you can go to ThreeHundredEight for its individual riding polling numbers. That can help you decide which party to vote for, if you're voting strategically. Basically, it will tell you which party has the best chance of beating the Tories in your riding, if that's what you're looking to do.
User avatar
Jamfalcon
Posts: 3329
Joined: 08 Aug 2011, 13:59
First Video: Killer Instinct
Location: Somewhat nearish Vancouver. Kind of.
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Jamfalcon » 06 Aug 2015, 22:55

Aha, I did look at that when you first posted the thread, then promptly forgot. :P Looks like my riding is leaning NDP a bit over Conservative, but far from a landslide. Liberals are way behind, which is fine by me, because it looks like a more split vote here could lose it to the Tories. So if there's no radical shift in the polls, that should be an easy choice.
"Jamfalcon's a super weird name" - Graham

I wrote a book!
Image
User avatar
Lord Chrusher
Can't Drink Possible Beers
Posts: 8913
Joined: 29 Apr 2005, 22:53
First Video: Door to Door
Location: In England.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Lord Chrusher » 07 Aug 2015, 03:16

Admittedly I did not watch the whole debate, but I was not impressed by May.
Image
We are all made of star dust. However we are also made of nuclear waste.
Remember to think before you post.
Image
User avatar
Tapir12
Posts: 2382
Joined: 24 Oct 2004, 19:48
First Video: Kei Kon 2004
Location: The Island

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Tapir12 » 07 Aug 2015, 06:48

I missed the debate because I had something else, but I'm going to see if I can watch it online.
Image
Things I like and maybe you will too:
AIESEC | Monster | Juuni Kokki | Vienna Teng | Guide To Canada
User avatar
Master Gunner
Defending us from The Dutch!
Posts: 19383
Joined: 29 Oct 2006, 12:19
First Video: How To Talk Like A Pirate
Location: In Limbo.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 07 Aug 2015, 07:04

TheRocket wrote:Apparently the crotch area could not contain the badonkadonk area.
Twitter | Click here to join the Desert Bus Community Chat.
User avatar
MinniChi
Posts: 868
Joined: 15 Oct 2012, 18:46
First Video: Your Very Own Prom
Location: Toronto Canada
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby MinniChi » 07 Aug 2015, 16:24

woo-Hoo!
I'm actually going to pay attention this election. I am even planning on going to the advance polls in my wedding dress (One of the advance polling day is my wedding day, which I know I won't be working).
No trees were killed to send this message, but a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 08 Aug 2015, 05:23

from reddit:
Image

Also, a Forum poll of Toronto voters says 25% thought no one won the debate: http://www.cp24.com/news/trudeau-seen-a ... -1.2507699
Garwulf
Posts: 161
Joined: 03 Jul 2014, 10:21
First Video: Unskippable - Lost Planet
Location: Kingston, Ontario
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Garwulf » 08 Aug 2015, 14:45

Coming to this a bit late, but observations about the debate...

1. Elizabeth May - holy shit. Seriously, she cleaned house, and at one point I exclaimed out loud "Why isn't she the Prime Minister?!" Easily the smartest person in the room.

2. Tom Mulcair - made some good points, but I honestly felt like he was talking down to the camera a few times. Also, his thing about the referendum numbers really lost him some points with me.

3. Stephen Harper - I'm not a fan of the man, but one thing I've noticed is that he NEVER gives ground in debates. So, my jaw just about hit the floor when he did it twice in this one.

4. Justin Trudeau - on one hand, holy crap he looks young...but on the other, he did really well, and I'd actually rate him as only just behind Elizabeth May as far as ranking the results go. He may have looked a good decade younger than he is, but he was very credible.

And now for the bit that has me in near-hysterical laughter...

But first, I have to explain how a suit jacket is supposed to fit. When one wears a suit jacket, the back of the lapel should be flush against the collar of the shirt. If there is a gap between collar and lapel, it means that the jacket is the wrong size, or has been fitted incorrectly. Or, more bluntly, if there's such a gap when you wear your suit jacket, you have failed at wearing suits.

Prior to the debate, one of the Conservative PR guys had made a derisive comment that Trudeau would exceed expectations if he showed up for the debate with his pants on. Trudeau was also the only male candidate who did not have the gap between collar and lapel.

Or, in short, Trudeau was the only male candidate at the debate who had succeeded in dressing himself.

I find that funny.
Author, Editor, Publisher, and Researcher
Read Garwulf's Corner, on Medium: https://medium.com/tag/garwulfs-corner/archive

...and please check out my Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/RobertBMarks
User avatar
Mr.Tie
Posts: 7
Joined: 12 Nov 2013, 20:24
First Video: Mancooking (meat onion)(I think)
Location: N.-B. Canada

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Mr.Tie » 08 Aug 2015, 17:29

I'll go back and read up to date, but I just want to say that I'm getting tired of seeing the Conservatives ads. Just because it is just 'Justin Trudeau is inexperienced, got crazy ideas, but nice hair' complete with some out of context clips of him.

I feel like I really need to pay attention to politics lately.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 08 Aug 2015, 20:18

Not surprising. Apparently that particular Tory ad has been seen by 72% of Canadians, whereas the big NDP and Liberal ads (as well as the positive Tory ad) were seen by 20-25% of Canadians.

Source

And that, folks, is why the fact that the Tories have a hell of a lot more money than the other parties is important. It's also why the long campaign period is contentious and likely to favour the Tories.

Edit:

Actually, the CBC had a nice little segment on ads Saturday: Link
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 09 Aug 2015, 09:20

Update: Conservative Security Policy Announcement

Well, Mr. Harper today announced that a re-elected Tory government would ban travel to areas that they have designated terrorist hotspots. Aid workers, journalists, and diplomats would be exempt. But anyone travelling to these places without a "legitimate" reason would be subject to prosecution and jail time upon return to Canada.

This is a nonsensical policy.

If the purpose of the policy is to prevent individuals from travelling to, let's be honest, Syria or Iraq before they do so, a criminal sanction that would take place after the individual has left and returned is going to be ineffective - since it isn't a sanction that occurs before they leave, it won't stop them (though I suppose Mr. Harper could mean a Conservative government would also create an offence of attempting or intending to travel to banned areas, which is both more effective and dicey from a rule-of-law perspective).

Moreover, law enforcement already has measures it can take to prevent individuals from travelling abroad. Specifically, they have the ability to seize the passports of suspected radicalized individuals, making it impossible for them to leave Canada, and making the policy just announced by Mr. Harper entirely moot. What's more, the passport seizure power was passed by the Conservatives in their most recent budget. So they know they have the power to do so, and are likely willing to use it.

Also, criminal sanctions after the fact (or sanctions for attempts or intent) are far less effective at preventing this sort of behaviour than early intervention and deradicalization efforts by law enforcement in conjunction with local ethnic and religious leaders. (But of course the Tories can't say that, because they mocked Mr. Trudeau for talking about the "root causes" of terrorism a few years back. *Sigh*)

If, on the other hand, the purpose of the proposed policy is to deter or punish terrorism abroad, or to segregate dangerous individuals upon their return to Canada, there are already laws in place that serve those purposes.

The Criminal Code of Canada wrote:83.18 (1) Every one who knowingly participates in or contributes to, directly or indirectly, any activity of a terrorist group for the purpose of enhancing the ability of any terrorist group to facilitate or carry out a terrorist activity is guilty of an indictable offence and liable to imprisonment for a term not exceeding ten years.

[...]

83.181 Everyone who leaves or attempts to leave Canada, or goes or attempts to go on board a conveyance with the intent to leave Canada, for the purpose of committing an act or omission outside Canada that, if committed in Canada, would be an offence under subsection 83.18(1) is guilty of an indictable offence and liable to imprisonment for a term of not more than 10 years.

[...]

83.19 (1) Every one who knowingly facilitates a terrorist activity is guilty of an indictable offence and liable to imprisonment for a term not exceeding fourteen years.

[...]

83.191 Everyone who leaves or attempts to leave Canada, or goes or attempts to go on board a conveyance with the intent to leave Canada, for the purpose of committing an act or omission outside Canada that, if committed in Canada, would be an offence under subsection 83.19(1) is guilty of an indictable offence and liable to imprisonment for a term of not more than 14 years.

[...]

83.201 Everyone who leaves or attempts to leave Canada, or goes or attempts to go on board a conveyance with the intent to leave Canada, for the purpose of committing an act or omission outside Canada that, if committed in Canada, would be an indictable offence under this or any other Act of Parliament for the benefit of, at the direction of or in association with a terrorist group is guilty of an indictable offence and liable to imprisonment for a term of not more than 14 years.

83.202 Everyone who leaves or attempts to leave Canada, or goes or attempts to go on board a conveyance with the intent to leave Canada, for the purpose of committing an act or omission outside Canada that, if committed in Canada, would be an indictable offence under this or any other Act of Parliament if the act or omission constituting the offence also constitutes a terrorist activity is guilty of an indictable offence and liable to imprisonment for a term of not more than 14 years.


Literally everything that Mr. Harper is saying a re-elected Tory government would do on this file is already law.

Well... with one exception. While everything about this newly-announced policy proposal that is in any way useful already exists in Canadian law, this policy would also criminalize non-problematic behaviour. That is to say, the proposed law is overbroad.

Look at all those snippets of the current Criminal Code up there. What you'll notice is that for a person to break the law they must, at the least, have the intent to commit a terrorist act. Not so under Mr. Harper's proposal. Mere travel (or intent to travel) to a banned area would be enough for an individual to have committed a criminal offence. While it's true that there would be exempt classes of individual (the aforementioned journalists, etc.), the law would still catch individuals who are, essentially, harmless within its scope. Consider the following scenarios:

1) I'm an ordinary guy who just wants to travel to Mosul in order to see the sights. It seems nice. Clearly, I'm an idiot who's going to be doing a dangerous thing, but I have no ill-intent. I will not be joining a terrorist organization or doing anything illegal; I just want to be a tourist.

2) I'm one of those guys who wants to go to Syria or Iraq to take up arms against ISIL. There have been a number of Canadians, usually ex-military, who have done this. They have since returned to the country, and have not faced criminal sanction (though the government does say it doesn't condone the activity; if they want to help, they should join the military).

In both cases, the individual in question is not a threat to Canada or Canadians. I happen to think both people are idiotic, but idiocy is not a good reason to jail someone. Now, under the current law, in both cases, the individual in question is not breaking the law. However, under Mr. Harper's proposal, both individuals would be breaking the law. Because mere travel to a banned region, without belonging to an exempt class, would be enough to invite criminal sanction.

Not only do I think that would be an undesired outcome, I tend to think that even the Conservatives would not desire that outcome. So, as I said, the policy is overbroad.

In the end, then, this policy proposal by Mr. Harper is at best useless (in that anything useful it has to do is already handled by current laws) and at worst actively harmful (in that it sanctions people who ought not be sanctioned).

Why, then, did Mr. Harper announce such a terrible policy? In a word, pandering. First, it's dog whistle politics; it plays very well to the law-and-order, support-the-troops Tory base. Second, the Conservatives are perceived as being strong on the security front. Mr. Harper wants to reinforce that to play to his party's strengths, especially after he got dinged pretty hard during last week's debate on his party's other usual strong area, the economy.

All of which is to say... yeah. This policy announcement is nonsense. It's pure politicking. It does nothing useful, and may be actively harmful. It's only being put out there to win votes. Not a good way to set government priorities, in my opinion.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 09 Aug 2015, 12:16

Update: The Week Ahead

We're going into week two of the campaign, and it's looking to be a very interesting one...

Debate Decision

This election's been mighty interesting in the way that the traditional debate format (and the Broadcast Consortium itself) has been entirely blown up. We've already had the Maclean's English-language debate, and until recently, we were expecting to have two more debates in English, and one in French.

Until the NDP decided to change its mind, that is. Word now is that Mr. Mulcair will only participate in an English debate if there's also a French debate; there needs to be an equal number. Given that there's only the one French debate planned so far, and that we've already had one English debate, that could mean there will be no more debates in English. At all. Despite the Globe and Munk debates having been already agreed-to and being very well-publicized.

We'll find out tomorrow what the story is. That's when the NDP will be announcing the final list of debates that Mr. Mulcair will participate in. I imagine they wanted to see how they did in the first debate before deciding how many more (if any) they want to subject themselves to.

Duffy Trial

The Mike Duffy trial is set to resume this week. Most importantly, Nigel Wright, the former chief-of-staff to the PM who is accused of bribing Duffy (possibly with the PM's knowledge or even instruction) is set to testify this week. I've heard maybe as soon as tomorrow, but that may be wrong. Should be interesting to hear what he has to say.

What I've been hearing is that he doesn't have a smoking gun, but this isn't likely to help the Tories. Especially if Duffy's lawyer really hammers at it (as he is likely to do), or if he tries to slowroll the trial to extend further into the campaign.

I'd also be on the lookout for indications that they might try to subpoena Mr. Harper when his parliamentary privilege runs out. That would definitely push the trial back, too.

New Polls

Finally, I'd expect to start seeing new polls that reflect the last week's campaigning, including the debate, as early as tomorrow. We're probably going to get fewer polls, at least in the summer, than we usually see due to the length of the writ period. But I can't imagine we don't get at least one per week.

So... exciting week ahead...
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 10 Aug 2015, 09:30

Ah. Nigel Wright will apparently take the stand Wednesday. His testimony is expected to last at least a week.

No word yet from the NDP about debates.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 10 Aug 2015, 09:55

Update: Protesters at NDP Book Launch


Interesting little thing just happened today. Apparently Tom Mulcair has written (or, more likely, has had written for him) a book. He held a press event today to launch it, and a handful of protesters showed up to oppose the Energy East pipeline. They were escorted out pretty quick, but one got off a question, and I think Mr. Mulcair handled it extremely well. It's situations like this where he's served best by keeping "Angry Tom" under his hat.

You can watch what happened here.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 10 Aug 2015, 11:20

Update: Boudreau on Tory Travel Ban

Chris Boudreau, mother of Damian Clairmont, has responded to Stephen Harper's proposed travel ban to terrorist "hotspots." (Clairmont was a Canadian citizen who travelled to Syria and was killed while fighting with ISIS - exactly the sort of person Mr. Harper was taking aim at.)

Ms. Boudreau had this to say:

Anybody can pick up and travel and book a flight to anywhere, and if you really want to go badly enough, you can book your flight to Europe and then from there book yourself into somewhere else.

It's window dressing. It's not realistic.

[...]

He should be looking more towards the intervention, prevention side, and providing the resources on the front end before the kids go down this path.

[...]

I believe Harper is overblowing the sense of fear and it's causing a lot more fear in the public than there needs to be. You can't oversee everybody in Canada and watch their travel


All of which rather supports what I was saying above: this policy would be ineffective and overbroad. It's about politics rather than good government. It's meant to appeal to the Tory base, and to make the party appear "tough" on terrorism.

As I said: it's nonsense. Please don't buy it.

That said, Ms. Boudreau also had this to say about Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau:

I think they're just scared to come up with anything and take any stance because ... people are so opinionated with regards to it.


Which is a fair point. Mr. Trudeau especially was hit very hard after the Boston Marathon bombing for saying that we need to deal with the root causes of terrorism. I happen to think that's the most sensible approach (and Ms. Boudreau seems to agree), but neither Mr. Trudeau nor Mr. Mulcair want to touch that particular issue with a forty foot pole; even though it's sensible, it's not politic.

Which is kind of depressing, frankly.

Source (CBC)

Edit: I just took a look at the comments on that article. Because I'm an idiot. Seriously... it's like a compulsion with me. Protip? Don't do that to yourself. Ugh.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 10 Aug 2015, 15:58

Update: Security Experts on Tory Travel Ban

Rosemary Barton interviewed former assistant director of intelligence for CSIS Ray Boisvert and former CSIS and RCMP counter-terror operator Mubin Shaikh on today's Power and Politics. She asked about the Tories' counter-terrorism travel ban proposal. They had serious concerns:

Boisvert wrote:Well, how do you carve out enough room in there to ensure that people who travel for legitimate reasons don't get caught up in some sort of prosecution that was probably based on false or inappropriate information?

[...]

Ultimately, it's really hard to say there's great value in this and that's why I think it's certainly got a whiff of political opportunism, but I'll leave that for others to debate.

[...]

It certainly helps focus the lens of investigative activity to some degree, but I already think, as Mubin's saying, there's already tons of gaps in the intel. [...] And we do not have truly secure borders in the sense that people can travel at will, and that's a Charter protected right. And of course, where do you draw the line? Because, again, as Mubin says, you go to Turkey, well then, how do you figure out where they've gone from there?

[...]

It seems somewhat redundant, I guess, in some sense.

[...]

It comes down, first and foremost, believing that there is value in preventative work. It's something that this government's not particularly strong on, for sure. [...] So getting at, for example, the root causes of a lot of criminal activity is poverty, and there's a whole bunch of things you can do to sort of help mitigate that. We have to do a lot more in this country. You cannot arrest or capture or kill everybody that's going to or has been involved in international terrorism.


Shaikh wrote:Banning travel to ISIS areas, you can't get there directly, so it really has no legs to stand on.

[...]

It's been, you know, eight years since the -- well, almost nine years -- since the Toronto 18 case. We still don't have any [deradicalization] program in place. [...] In fact, there is a lot of window-dressing, in terms of what they claim that they're doing, the reality is that there are no programs in place.


Not a terribly ringing endorsement of this policy by the experts. As I said: it's nonsense.

You can watch the entire segment here.
User avatar
Hekla
Posts: 96
Joined: 12 May 2012, 16:48
First Video: The Whole Story: Desert Bus
Location: The Northern Hemisphere... For now.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Hekla » 11 Aug 2015, 06:37

As somebody moving to Canada (PEI) to study, and has studies 'politics' at university in the UK, I'm looking forward to getting my teeth into another country's elections, even if I can't vote. (A bit of trivia here: Commonwealth citizens are allowed to vote in UK general elections, but not in most other Commonwealth states).

I guess I could still campaign if I wanted to!
I'm also QuintonDreaming. Stupid username availability prevents me from always being an Icelandic volcano.
User avatar
Metcarfre
Posts: 13676
Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 13:52
First Video: Not Applicable
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 11 Aug 2015, 10:20

NDP bb

Image

Good thing I'm in an NDP riding, I guess?
*
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 11 Aug 2015, 16:17

Update: New Polls and Munk Debate

New Polls

Ha-hey! New polling results!

Image

Tories: +/-0.0%, +2 expected seats
NDP: -0.2%, -3 expected seats
Liberals: +0.2%, +1 expected seat
Greens: +/-0.0%, No seat change
Bloc: +/-0.0%, No seat change
Others: +/-0.0%, No seat change

Almost no change at all in the popular vote percentage - within the margin of error, I'd wager. But the seat counts have flipped around a bit, so there has been movement in individual ridings. It's enough to put the Tories on top in seat count, barely, though the NDP still lead in popularity.

Also, this only includes polls up to August 7th, which was before the debate, so we've still not seen the result of that.

Munk Debate

Well, we've heard from the NDP as to which debates they'll participate in. One day after their self-declared deadline. More or less. At any rate, we know now that Mr. Mulcair will participate in the Munk School debate on foreign policy, since it's been changed to a bilingual debate. Still nothing on the other English debates, though, since Mr. Mulcair is sticking to his "one French debate for every English debate" promise. Still... that's one we know is nailed down.

Also interesting: the Liberals have not confirmed their participation in this debate... but have requested that Elizabeth May also be included. The Liberals seemed to confirm, then revered themselves. For now. Ugh.

The Tories are confirmed for this debate.

The Munk debate is scheduled for September 28th.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 11 Aug 2015, 16:23

Hekla wrote:As somebody moving to Canada (PEI) to study, and has studies 'politics' at university in the UK, I'm looking forward to getting my teeth into another country's elections, even if I can't vote. (A bit of trivia here: Commonwealth citizens are allowed to vote in UK general elections, but not in most other Commonwealth states).

I guess I could still campaign if I wanted to!


Ooh, neat! I haven't been to PEI in years. Beautiful part of the country.

As to Commonwealth Citizen voting, as I understand it, you need to be registered to vote at a UK address. So I, for example, could not vote in a British election since my address is in Canada.

Now... as to getting involved in Canadian politics... you'll find a lot of similarities with British politics. Our Senate problems are very similar to your Lords problems. Right down to improper expense claims for residency. Funny how that is...

Anyway... what are you going to be studying? More politics?
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 12 Aug 2015, 10:11

Update: New Polls Again

New polling data added to the poll aggregate today, this time including data collected up to August 10th - meaning that the results of the debate last week are included:

Image

NDP: +/-0.0%, +2 expected seats
Tories: -0.1%, -9 expected seats
Liberals: +1.1%, +8 expected seat
Greens: -0.5%, No seat change
Bloc: -0.5%, -1 expected seat
Others: -0.1%, No seat change

Which is interesting. Barely any movement at all on the total popular vote percentage for any of the parties, but a fairly significant change in expected seat counts. Enough to put the NDP back in the lead over the Tories. That suggests to me that there's a lot of movement on the riding level, that kind of cancels out at the aggregate national level.

I think it is worth noting, though, that the most significant movement was a positive jump for the Liberals. Not sure if that's an indication of debate performance or a fluke, but it is a pretty large gain for them, especially compared to the drop in seat count for the Tories.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 12 Aug 2015, 11:24

Update: Debates Saga Continues

Good. Lord.

Looks like we're getting more debates. For now. Hopefully.

The NDP, Tories, and Liberals have all now confirmed participation in a bilingual Munk School debate. The Greens are not invited, but the Liberals have requested they be included.

A group of broadcasters, including the CBC, CTV, and Global (identical to the Broadcast Consortium, but not actually the Consortium) have come to an agreement on a French-language debate. The NDP, Liberals, Bloc, and Greens will participate. So will the Tories, despite having said they will not participate in the Consortium debates. But, uh, this isn't the Consortium debate. It's just a debate in the same place and time as the Consortium debate, and organized by the same groups that make up the Consortium... but not actually the Consortium. So... it's... different?

Whatever. It's happening.

Because there is now a second French-language debate, The NDP has agreed to participate in a further English-language debate. The Globe and Mail debate, to be specific. The NDP, Conservatives, and Liberals are participating in that one. The Greens are not invited.

That's a huge mess. Let me lay it all out for you:

Confirmed Leaders' Debates:

Maclean's Debate (Now Complete)

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, August 6th, 2015
- Where: CityTV, CPAC, Rogers Radio Stations, and online (including Macleans.ca and YouTube)
- Topic: General, English-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Greens

Globe and Mail/Google Canada Debate

- When: September 17th, 2015
- Where: Unknown
- Topic: The economy, English-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals

Pseudo-Consortium Debate

- When: September 24th, 2015
- Where: Network broadcast (CBC, Radio-Canada, CTV, Global)
- Topic: General, French-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Greens, Bloc

Munk School of Global Affairs Debate

- When: September 28th, 2015
- Where: Unknown
- Topic: Foreign affairs, Bilingual
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals

TVA Debate

- When: October 2nd, 2015
- Where: TVA
- Topic: General, French-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc

Consortium Debate (May Not Happen at All)

- When: October 8th, 2015
- Where: Network broadcast (CBC, Radio-Canada, CTV, Global)
- Topic: General, English-langauge
- Who: Liberals and Greens expected. Tories have declined. NDP will not enter any debate without Conservatives

Cripes. We really need to set up a proper system for this. This free-for-all is not sustainable. What a bloody gongshow.
User avatar
Hekla
Posts: 96
Joined: 12 May 2012, 16:48
First Video: The Whole Story: Desert Bus
Location: The Northern Hemisphere... For now.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Hekla » 12 Aug 2015, 13:39

Ooh, neat! I haven't been to PEI in years. Beautiful part of the country.

As to Commonwealth Citizen voting, as I understand it, you need to be registered to vote at a UK address. So I, for example, could not vote in a British election since my address is in Canada.

Now... as to getting involved in Canadian politics... you'll find a lot of similarities with British politics. Our Senate problems are very similar to your Lords problems. Right down to improper expense claims for residency. Funny how that is...

Anyway... what are you going to be studying? More politics?


I should have probably clarified about the Commonwealth voting thing. I was pointing out that the UK lets non UK citizens who are resident in the UK and citizens of Commonwealth countries to vote, but most other Commonwealth countries don't have such a policy. So sadly I can't vote as a British citizen in a Canadian election when I'm living there.

As to the second point, I do enjoy a good parliamentary system and its many quirks, and I think I recall that Canada's system is particularly British. You even have Ridings (not that we have them in any official capacity)! As somebody who's moving from Yorkshire, this is funny.

I'll probably end up studying the political to some extent, but the course is an Island Studies MA. So I'll be studying... Islands. UPEI is very much one of the places to be for that, so that's where I'll be. It makes for amusing geographical explanation when explaining where I'm moving to, mostly revolving around whether people can locate Halifax as the nearest city of note.

Anyhow, I am enjoying this topic, and it'll be great to be there for the election.
I'm also QuintonDreaming. Stupid username availability prevents me from always being an Icelandic volcano.
User avatar
Master Gunner
Defending us from The Dutch!
Posts: 19383
Joined: 29 Oct 2006, 12:19
First Video: How To Talk Like A Pirate
Location: In Limbo.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 12 Aug 2015, 16:19

When talking to Americans, at least, it's often easiest to describe it as "Go to Maine, and turn right". Most Canadians don't even know the geography of Atlantic Canada beyond "Halifax is some where over that way, and Newfoundland is up that way-ish".
TheRocket wrote:Apparently the crotch area could not contain the badonkadonk area.
Twitter | Click here to join the Desert Bus Community Chat.

Return to “General Discussion”



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 55 guests