So... About that Significant World Event that Happened...

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So... About that Significant World Event that Happened...

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 23 Jun 2016, 23:14

Brexit, huh? Honestly... I didn't think the vote would go this way.

So... consequences:

- Pound tanks
- Global economy tanks
- EU continues to lose members over the next twenty years, resulting in further economic turmoil and dissolution of EU
- UK ceases to exist when Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland leave
- Quebec looks at all of this, and decides it's time for another referendum of its own (particularly important to me, as a Canadian)

I... don't care for any of that. :(
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby fantôme » 24 Jun 2016, 00:05

Further consequences:

Destabilization of the eastern bloc.
England loses the convention on human rights.
Further promoting stereotype of a belligerent, racist country.
Mr. Farridge feels a sense of self-validation.

I want out of this country.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Elaro » 24 Jun 2016, 00:46

Much to the chagrin of Newfoundlanders who hoped it would make the trip to Toronto shorter, Quebec isn't going to separate from Canada. We just booted out the PQ (that's the leading national brand of separatist crazies) and they were replaced by the Liberals, who are pretty much the only federalist party and who dominate the National Assembly by 71 of 125, so don't worry about Quebec separating just yet!

Instead worry about where I am going to get my education, because they seem keen on that dread platform austerity.

But I digress.

Please continue discussing britexit.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby SoundGuy0dB » 24 Jun 2016, 00:58

Am expecting the Scottish Parliment here to announce a 2nd Independence Refferendum shortly...
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby JustAName » 24 Jun 2016, 01:06

I'm as disappointed as anyone that the racist side won, but I'm also more worried from a personal perspective. The Irish economy is tanking right now, meaning that the anticipated upturn, which would have positive implications for public service jobs, is no longer going to happen. Which means that libraries don't have the funding to hire new people anymore, and I'll probably not be able to get a job. I hope I don't have to go home. After five years working toward this, I don't want to have to leave because of this.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby My pseudonym is Ix » 24 Jun 2016, 01:44

If I may offer some perspective (speaking as a Remain voter)...

For starters, this vote is not actually HUGELY significant in terms of its immediate impact on Britain's relationship with the EU. It is not legally binding, and if they have desperate plans to lose large swathes of their membership the government is free to not do anything about it, or at least leave it tied up in mountains of red tape.

Secondly, the ever-pressing racist angle. I will not deny that some of the most vocal advocates for Britain leaving (I dislike the Brexit moniker) are frankly racially insensitive, insular bigots (Farage), and that others are just straight-up stupid (Gove) and I hate the idea of them representing me. However, to accuse this result of being purely racially charged is a frank exaggeration; Britain has had a long-standing relationship of frustration with the EU, as it has made a net monetary contribution rather than gain from the union every year that it has been a member (I and others personally tank that this is a fair and appropriate price to pay, but it is obviously a bone of contention). Furthermore, the endless bureaucracy (that particularly targets small businesses), the worrying neo-liberal outlook of the EU commission at the moment, and the Eurozone disasters of the last few years has greatly eroded public trust in the union. And then we come to the simple point that Britain as a nation has considered itself somewhat separate from Europe for more than 500 years, and in more recent times has prized itself on its ability to hold out on its own*. The good side of this is the strong sense of local and national identity that pervades the British Isles- the downside is what has been referred to as the tendency of the English in particular to be 'institutionally right-wing'.

*This is particularly true of the older generation, who remember the days when Britain stood toe-to-toe with the big boys without much help; they are inclined to believe that we can do it again.

So, in summary, we have a political institution that is deeply flawed in a lot of ways, to which many Britons consider themselves separate from and that they see little tangible benefit from. Even excluding the distasteful racial charges of the likes of UKIP, there are some pretty compelling leave arguments to which, from what I've seen, the majority of the 'Leave' advocates have subscribed.

Remember at this point- I voted remain, so I KNOW the counter-arguments to this and agree with them. I include these here so people remember that this wasn't a simple case of 'frightened racist sheep against learned intellectuals'.

Finally, consequences. Most economic analyses have predicted a medium-term decrease in UK GDP of between 3% and 7% as a result of this decision, discounting the short term-mayhem that comes from the financial markets getting overexcited. Just about everything else, however, is wasteful idle speculation. Predictions I've seen as a result of the leave vote (from my majority Remain friends) range from the deportation of everyone without a British passport to the EU collapsing to smithereens inside 5 years, neither of which are very likely. Indeed, I can construct a pretty compelling narrative in which the economic and political consequences of this decision are sufficient to generate a major backlash against UK conservative politics and only increase the UK's liberalism as a result of having seen 'the dark side'- it's not any more or less likely than the scaremongering, but it provides a useful counter-argument if you are wishing to remind yourself how stupid a lot of the speculating is.

I would like to have stayed too. Doesn't mean it's going to be the end of the world.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Darkflame » 24 Jun 2016, 02:08

Not the end of the world, but certainly a huge shrinking of the UKs influence.
Or, well, England, as its near impossible to keep scotland now.

(I do wonder how hard it will be for Scotland to join the EU on their own..thats a bit of a open question, although its a pretty sure thing they will try).

I do look on the bright side of Cameron resigning. I can put up with most politics, but his mass-surveillance-happy policies combined with internet-censorship policies were starting to scare me. Especially when he was pushed for a investigation of the gaudian for terrorism because they released information from Snowden.("They must have known they were doing something wrong because they let the police in the building to smash the hard drives")

So, yeah, not a fan.
On the other hand, will Boris "discount Trump" Johnson be any better?
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Elomin Sha » 24 Jun 2016, 02:11

I'm not sure Eire will be effected too badly as they are already in the EU. We'll have to see what teh next 2 to 5 years bring.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Amake » 24 Jun 2016, 02:14

"The pursuit of independence is subverted by craven self-righteousness unless trust in the other is evident."

An axiom I figured out last night as I realized the concept of national independence has gone the same way as the Swastika: Tainted by the touch of fascism, now useless to democratic movements. I hope more people realize this soon as the racist parties of other EU countries now mobilize to get their referendae.

The forces of anti-democracy already has their foot in the door, and we need them out of our parliaments before we can discuss the pros and cons of a European union.

That's the important thing now, at least from where I'm standing.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Gap Filler » 24 Jun 2016, 02:18

Welp, I'm outta here. So long suckers.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Gap Filler » 24 Jun 2016, 02:26

One silver lining (and it's a broken window quite frankly) was the high turnout which if nothing else is two fingers at the 'not voting because all politicians are the same/my vote doesn't mean anything' mob. Nice the see people actually caring about how they're governed.

Still, We do follow through on this and leave I'm seriously considering a more permanent move to Hong Kong.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Elomin Sha » 24 Jun 2016, 02:30

And Farage has been saying today that the £350 million advert that could go to NHS isn't guaranteed.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Drecon » 24 Jun 2016, 03:59

And there we have the drawback of democracy. People are stupid.

I'm really wondering if the British government will actually go through with this. It's such a bad idea. I mean, I'm sure the EU won't hurt too much because of it, but I really worry for the British economy right now. Also, with a possibility of Scotland leaving, that leaves them very alone in a very big world...
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby My pseudonym is Ix » 24 Jun 2016, 04:32

Drecon wrote:And there we have the drawback of democracy. People are stupid.


I disagree. For one thing, there's this.

For another, the idea that someone who disagrees with you politically is stupid includes the tacit assumption they hold the same ideas as priorities relative to you. This is almost tautologically not the case for people who disagree with you.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby MagisterMystax » 24 Jun 2016, 04:41

Ugh, now the leader of our fascist party is all over the news being unbearably smug and happy and calling for a referendum to leave as well.

For those in the UK: how likely are the stories of Scotland and northern Ireland planning to hold independence referenda so they can stay in the EU as independent countries?
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby My pseudonym is Ix » 24 Jun 2016, 04:45

Pretty likely. Scotland voted unanimously (at least by constituency) to remain and this has conveniently distracted everyone from the current oil price situation. Northern Ireland a little less likely, but I hear less news coming from there.

Although there is also a rather entertaining petition currently going round asking Parliament to call a second one based on the fact that there was less than 75% attendance and 60% majority (there's a weird sub-clause in there somewhere). It currently stands just south of 150k signatures and would be higher if the website would stop crashing.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Phailhammer » 24 Jun 2016, 05:45

I've already seen announcements that a new Scottish referendum is all but certain. From what I've read, a vote for Irish reunification is less likely, but is definitely a possibility. On the whole, I'm inclined to believe that it won't be the coming of the Four Horsemen, but it's certainly not turning out to be the brave new dawn some touted it as, at least in the short term.

Meanwhile, people over here are starting to use the UK referendum result as a reason to push for another republic referendum. I'm all for a republic, but I consider "if the UK can leave the EU, why don't we leave the UK" stuff I've been seeing a little on the nose.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Dubious_wolf » 24 Jun 2016, 06:43

I'm still in shock from hearing this. I just can't understand how Britain's think it's a good idea.
So quick question, Did the support for Leaving have any backing from major banks or the "1%" or anything? It almost seems like someone is trying to set up more QE to take advantage of...
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby My pseudonym is Ix » 24 Jun 2016, 06:55

Dubious_wolf wrote:I'm still in shock from hearing this. I just can't understand how Britain's think it's a good idea.
So quick question, Did the support for Leaving have any backing from major banks or the "1%" or anything? It almost seems like someone is trying to set up more QE to take advantage of...


Not particularly- it was very much the oldies and the working classes who were on board with this one. If you want why people think it's a good idea, see my post on the innie/outie thread. From a Briton's perspective, it's easy for it to make sense.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby MetricFurlong » 24 Jun 2016, 06:59

MagisterMystax wrote:For those in the UK: how likely are the stories of Scotland and northern Ireland planning to hold independence referenda so they can stay in the EU as independent countries?

Scotland is very likely. NI is hard to say, although I imagine if Cameron's resignation leads to one of the 'opt-out of the ECHR' camp of the Tories ascending then we can expect to see a harder push for it.

My pseudonym is Ix wrote:For another, the idea that someone who disagrees with you politically is stupid includes the tacit assumption they hold the same ideas as priorities relative to you.

It holds the assumption that they should, and the fact that they don't is a result of a defect in their intelligence.
If you want to argue that's an unhelpful and unfair attitude then by all means go ahead, I won't disagree with you, but this really isn't the best way to go about making that point.


Dubious_wolf wrote:So quick question, Did the support for Leaving have any backing from major banks or the "1%" or anything? It almost seems like someone is trying to set up more QE to take advantage of...

Not really (well, aside from Rupert Murdoch anyway), if anything most of the financial sector's been backing the Remain side. There's no need to resort to conspiracies here; a fair of this is simply the result of ambitious men taking advantage of England's xenophobic underbelly and large numbers of disaffected people in the rural regions by pointing to a foreign 'enemy' and selling them a line on how they can 'take the country back' to a (largely imaginary) period of former greatness. Farage and UKIP have been peddling this line for over a decade, largely unchallenged if not outright supported by the tabloid press.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Master Gunner » 24 Jun 2016, 10:07

Most likely scenario long term: UK works out a deal with the EU similar to Norway and Switzerland where they end up paying into the EU and abiding by most of the EU rules in order to gain access to the common market - so exactly the same situation they already had, but with a few extra exemptions and they no longer get a say in the EU going forward.

Still, it's scary stuff, and unprecedented enough that there are lots of possible outcomes (as others have discussed). I'm just on the "everything will continue mostly as it always has, with everyone left vaguely bitter and disappointed" train.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 24 Jun 2016, 10:52

Elaro wrote:Much to the chagrin of Newfoundlanders who hoped it would make the trip to Toronto shorter, Quebec isn't going to separate from Canada. We just booted out the PQ (that's the leading national brand of separatist crazies) and they were replaced by the Liberals, who are pretty much the only federalist party and who dominate the National Assembly by 71 of 125, so don't worry about Quebec separating just yet!

Instead worry about where I am going to get my education, because they seem keen on that dread platform austerity.

But I digress.

Please continue discussing britexit.


I'm going to continue the digression for a bit, if we don't mind - as I say, it's of particular interest to me. I live in Ottawa, and I can see Quebec from the main road by my house. I have family in Gatineau. It's local to me.

I suppose what bothers me the most is seeing the parallels between the Leave camp this time around and the Pequistes in the 90s. Namely, all the promises that things wouldn't change too much, and that everyone would continue to enjoy the benefits of the status quo while also gaining independence (Brexit Leavers: "There will be no negative economic consequences and we'll end up with more money overall." Pequistes: "We will continue to receive transfer payments, use the Canadian dollar, and be defended by the Canadian military. Also, we won't need to take on our portion of the national debt.")

All lies and nonsense, of course, intended to convince voters that the consequences of leaving wouldn't be negative, in order to shore up the leave vote. It didn't work in Quebec in 1995... but it sure worked yesterday in Britain.

My concern is that seeing this (as well as a successful Brexit vote and the upcoming independence referendum in Scotland... and probably one in Northern Ireland) will embolden the Pequistes and other sovereigntist parties. It might even compel them to try again with the lies. If it worked in Britain, and almost worked in Quebec, why not try it again?

Also concerning is the number of British voters saying "I voted leave as a protest/to force EU concessions... but I didn't actually want to leave! Now I'm terrified..." Because, well, a lot of people who voted in the Quebec referenda voted for the exact same reasons. They wanted concessions from Ottawa. And the hell of it is, they got them. So it worked. But 95 was a damned close thing, and those voting to get concessions would have been unhappy had the vote gone the other way - just like Britain now. I'm a little afraid that if there is another Quebec referendum at some point, there will be protest/concession voters who push it all over a cliff, then regret it. And I worry that the sovereigntists not only know that, but would encourage it.

The one thing that gives me a little hope is that the EU is playing hardball. They're saying "You voted 'Out,' so get out. Fast. No, you don't get concessions or benefits. This is a clean, total break. I don't care what you were told. Life is hard."

Which... yeah. It sucks. It's hard on Britons, and I'm really sorry about it. But from my perspective, well, it does put to lie the Quebec sovereigntist myth that an independence vote would result in nothing more than a renegotiation of terms with the rest of Canada, rather than a break. They've always claimed that a Yes vote would mean Quebec City could force Ottawa to do anything it wants; the fallout in Brussels and London right now is showing what a delusional lie that is.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby My pseudonym is Ix » 24 Jun 2016, 10:55

MetricFurlong wrote:
My pseudonym is Ix wrote:For another, the idea that someone who disagrees with you politically is stupid includes the tacit assumption they hold the same ideas as priorities relative to you.

It holds the assumption that they should, and the fact that they don't is a result of a defect in their intelligence.
If you want to argue that's an unhelpful and unfair attitude then by all means go ahead, I won't disagree with you, but this really isn't the best way to go about making that point.


You make a good point. I was going more for the angle of "these people have seen the same evidence I have and come to the same conclusion and they're STILL going the other way?? They must be idiots!!!"... but your interpretation makes more sense, if I'm honest. Apologies if I offended.
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Master Gunner » 24 Jun 2016, 13:57

Arclight_Dynamo wrote:Which... yeah. It sucks. It's hard on Britons, and I'm really sorry about it. But from my perspective, well, it does put to lie the Quebec sovereigntist myth that an independence vote would result in nothing more than a renegotiation of terms with the rest of Canada, rather than a break. They've always claimed that a Yes vote would mean Quebec City could force Ottawa to do anything it wants; the fallout in Brussels and London right now is showing what a delusional lie that is.


And that's the EU playing hardball despite their being clauses and a (theoretical) process for a country to exit, along with precedent for other countries having close relationships and many benefits of the EU without being members (Norway and Switzerland). Quebec separation would have neither - only whatever rules we decide to draw up after they decide to leave.

On the other hand, a hard Quebec separation would likely be harder on at least my part of the country than Britain leaving will be for the EU (not that it would make any difference to the process if Quebec did leave).
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Re: So... About that Significant World Event that Happened..

Postby Darkobra » 24 Jun 2016, 16:28

Where do I even begin with this... Not to mention Scotland's now using it for Referendum 2.0 to try to get out of the UK again to get back into the EU again.

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