Vampire Mafia GAME OVER! Town wins.

[NecroVale]

Honestly I think Dutch Guy is more likely than Trymantha, just looking at what Jillers has said.

Though on another note.

Well, I can safely announce that Necrovale, whom I was watching last night, did in fact visit Metcarfre. Quite what that should be interpreted as, considering nothing visible has happened, I'm not sure, but that is what happened... Nevertheless, now that we've lost 2 more townies, I'm not entirely sure how easy it will be moving on from here.

Currently I am not convinced that Met is a vampire. Having watched him last night and the only activity I saw was that he was visited by Necro, the only plausible way he could be a vampire is if Necro is a vampire as well.

Did you visit me or Met?

[Master Gunner]

Let's back up to Myrph's post a bit. What evidence do we have against either Trymantha or Dutch Guy being vamps?

Less than a dozen posts above yours:

I thought I already cleared up, repeatedly, yesterday, who the only possibilities for vampires were, and why.

Why we know Octo was turned Night 2: He was protected by Dmitri Night 1, Turned by Jackslack Night 2 (Myrph saw JackSlack visit him), and we killed him Day 3.

Why we know no one was turned Night 3: JackSlack targeted Tapir12 night 3, and Word of God (in addition to DmitriW's claim of protection) confirms Tapir wasn't turned.

That leaves Night 1 with the unknown vampire turning, and Jillers shows why it couldn't have being Trymantha that night. By Day 3, there were 3 vampires (JackSlack, Octo(Night 2), and unknown(Night 1)). According to Jillers, 2 vampires voted against Octo (the third vampire) that day: JackSlack, and unknown. Trymantha did not vote for Octo, and thus could not have being the third vampire Jillers picked up. Trymantha did, however, vote Day 1, where Jillers reports no vampires voting, and thus proving he was not a vampire to start.

[Myrph]

Honestly I think Dutch Guy is more likely than Trymantha, just looking at what Jillers has said.

Though on another note.

Well, I can safely announce that Necrovale, whom I was watching last night, did in fact visit Metcarfre. Quite what that should be interpreted as, considering nothing visible has happened, I'm not sure, but that is what happened... Nevertheless, now that we've lost 2 more townies, I'm not entirely sure how easy it will be moving on from here.

Currently I am not convinced that Met is a vampire. Having watched him last night and the only activity I saw was that he was visited by Necro, the only plausible way he could be a vampire is if Necro is a vampire as well.

Did you visit me or Met?

Apologies, I visited you, not Met, watched you visit Met, got it the wrong way round in my head, which compounded with the fact I've not been getting enough sleep recently resulted in me talking out of my backside! Apologies, I'll try and avoid it happening again!

[Metcarfre]

Aha! So I CAN be a vampire! Good to know.

...Assuming I'm invulnerable or protected.

[Metcarfre]

*snip*

Potentially, could;
- Trymantha have been turned night one, and;
- There have been another vampire from the start?

[Master Gunner]

Only you, myself, Necro, Tapir, and deathnight did not vote on Day 1 (when no vampires were detected, and are still alive. Assuming Trymantha was the unknown vampire Day 2, we'd be looking for someone who voted day 3 but not day 2, and is among the aforementioned 5. That would leave only Deathnight (who is the main cause of us killing any vampires thus far).

[Trymantha]

*snip*

Potentially, could;
- Trymantha have been turned night one, and;
- There have been another vampire from the start?

well i am townie and i started this game townie, i know that there could have been another vampire from day 1 but because of my cult links being part of the cult i was aware of who the town doctor was from day 1 and if i was also a vampire right from the beginning dont you think that the first target would have been the town doctor?


OOC: if i go quite for a few days its because of massive flooding in the area where i live(Sunshine Coast Australia) people lees than a kilometer away have already been evacuated so i might have to be soon.

[DmitriW]

Do we know that Jillers was able to detect if a person was turned the night after they voted? If not, then Trymantha could have come up as town to Jillers Night 1 and been turned the same night...

[Master Gunner]

They weren't a vampire when they voted, thus they wouldn't show up on Jillers count. And I already stated, multiple times, why Trymantha wasn't turned night 1, and the only way that could possibly work is if Deathnight was also a vampire from the start.

[DmitriW]

Unvote
Sorry, Gunner. I'm not at my best tonight. Going to refrain from voting until I have a better grip on what's going on here.

[NecroVale]

And how about Dutch Guy?

[Myrph]

As far as I can tell, with all the evidence to suggest Trymantha is not a vampire, all signs point towards Dutch Guy being the only remaining vampire. With the information we've collected regarding everyone else, he's the only one who doesn't have any hugely compelling evidence in his favour.

CHANGEVOTE: Dutch Guy

[Dutch guy]

Once again, there is also no hugely compelling evidence AGAINST me.

and once again, if you want to waste a good vote on me, be my guest. Your loss.

My vote stays on Met, theres something going on with that guy imho.

[NecroVale]

There hasn't been a lot of compelling evidence FOR you either.

And considering some people are under the belief that Met killed someone, turned someone, and protected himself all in one night...

If Met is a vampire then I'm pretty sure he's not acting alone.

We really can't afford to overlook anyone.

[Myrph]

To be honest, what is more compelling than process of elimination? As the great Sherlock Holmes once said "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". As far as I can tell, we have genuinely eliminated to a reasonable degree every other person that it could be. That leaves the only remaining suspect as Dutch Guy.

Not in a position where I can reinforce that statement, currently, however if/when I get the time, I may do a massive post outlining why every other person cannot be a vampire, within reasonable doubt. Yes we have made several assumptions along the way and yes chances are everything would likely fall apart if those assumptions proved wrong, but this is the best we've got at the moment, so I'm personally willing to go along with it.

[Master Gunner]

And how about Dutch Guy?

Dutch Guy wasn't a vampire at the start (he voted day 1 and was reported clean), and he didn't vote day 2 when one vampire was detected. As deathnight is the only possible person who could have being a vampire at the start (see my earlier statements regarding the Trymantha theory), and did NOT vote day 2, but voted day 3 alongside Dutch Guy (when again, there was only 1 unknown vampire detected), the data simply does not support Dutch Guy being a vampire.

Seriously, at this point I'm pretty much only going by the data Jillers provided, which is pretty much confirmed to be accurate, to poke holes in your guys theories. It isn't that hard to just take a look at what she said (it's in quotes at the top of page 36) before making wild accusations.

The process of elimination does work, however you should eliminate people by going through the data and seeing if it's even possible first (the whole "eliminating the impossible" part of that quote) before trying to eliminate them by killing them.

My analysis of the data has shown, at least to me, that the most likely possibility is that Metcarfre was turned night 1 and somehow has protection from night kills. I have performed this analysis, and posted it, several different times from several different angles. If you have an issue with it, or some alternative theory that also fits the facts as we know them, I'd love to hear it. But first, check the god-damn fucking data.

Ugh, why'd I have to skip that last coffee?

[Metcarfre]

Side note; where is Gordon?

[Metcarfre]

Also; what evidence is there against MG having been a vampire from the start?

[Trymantha]

Gunner being part of the cult was identified as being a town member at least thats what i was told in my pm about it. I doubt he was a vamp from day one because he would also have knowledge of who the town doctor was and given an infect scenario where no information who was turned until the person is staked dont you think the doctor would have been a high priority to chose, i know this is not facts or anything just my belief also by having access to the cult conversions gunner would know right from the start who the doctor is protecting while this game has had many twists and turns i dont think any GM would let the mafia know from day one who he is and who he is protecting each night.

[Metcarfre]

OK, I'm sorry MG but since I know I am not a vampire, I can't accept that conclusion. I'm fully aware this means nothing to anyone else.

[Master Gunner]

I fully expect you to fight against you being a vampire. It's everyone else throwing out wild theories in direct contradiction to known data that annoy me. I am looking for an alternative explanation, but I've yet to find one.

[NecroVale]

So basically Met is what... Schrödinger's Vampire?

I'm still not sure enough about Met, either way. If he is a vampire he'd have to be like the super god of all vampires.

And out of curiosity, if Met gets lynched and turns out to be innocent, where then do we look?

[Master Gunner]

I have no clue, which is part of why I'm looking around now hoping to find something.

[NecroVale]

Find anything? Because I haven't...

[Metcarfre]

It's like there's too much going on in this game. Too many role players, too many odd questions about what's actually going on, and quite frankly a very confusing main mechanic.

I mean, either I'm a baby vamp that has been given (or inherited?) protection powers (or has yet another vamp protecting him), or several other people are vamps... or lying... there's no way to sort it out.