The Hat Market Game

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JackSlack
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The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 24 Aug 2011, 18:18

OK, so I've been pondering how to do this for a while, but the time has come. Now, you too can play the Feed Dump related Hat Market!

Here are the rules:

1. Everyone starts with $1000.
2. You can invest it in any of the five categories: Hats, Prescription Eyewear, Non-Prescription Eyewear, Fake Facial Traits or Hatless.
2i. This was previously Wigs, rather than Fake Facial Traits, changed with episode 23.
2a. These elements are defined as:

2a i. "Hats": An object upon the head that is designed to cover it in whole or in part and looks (at least in part) deliberately unlike hair or natural baldness.
2a ii. "Prescription Eyewear": Glasses designed to correct vision.
2a iii. "Non-Prescription Eyewear": Glasses, goggles, or anything else designed to cover the eyes for purposes other than vision correction. If this object is also a hat, hat wins out for classification purposes.
2a iv. "Fake Facial Traits": Any head covering designed to evoke the sense of a natural facial trait, like fake beards, fake moustaches, wigs and masks. If this category overlaps with hats, hats wins out over Fake Facial Trait.
2a iv(i): Formerly, before episode 23 listed as: "Wigs": Head coverings designed to evoke the appearance of hair. Bald caps would also count. If the object is in part a hat and part a wig (like a dreadlocks cap) it counts as a hat for the purposes of classification.
2a v. "Hatless": Despite the name, counts as 'miscellaneous'. Refers to any shot which contains no worn piece of any of the above. You can HOLD a pair of glasses in your hand, and it's still hatless. But the moment it's put on, it becomes a prescription eyewear or an NPEW shot.

3. The market 'closes' on Tuesday at 5pm, British Columbia Canada Pacific Time. That will make absolutely sure nobody can 'sneak a peak' at the next episode. Edit: If you've not stated your bids before close of play, all funds default to liquid. Edit: With the advent of the new site, Rule 3 is as a whole defunct.
a. This rule was, before week 3: "If you've not stated that you're changing categories or 'selling out' your assets, your investments are assumed to roll over from the previous week." No longer is this rule operative.
4. LRR crewmembers are not permitted to play. No insider trading. ;)
5. Finally, you cannot bid on a category that has 0% value that week. There are no riskless bids.

Once the hat stats go up in the Feed Dump forum, I'll post up in this thread telling everyone what happened to their investments. It will go up by the same proportion: If you bid on non-prescription eyewear at 1%, and it goes up to 4% the next week, your investment goes up by 400%, not 3%.

This leads to rule six (edited in):

6. THERE IS NO RULE SIX.
7. No bids can include cents. Whole dollar bids only. When returns are calculated they will be rounded to the nearest dollar.
8. In the unlikely event of a public disclosure by Loading Ready Run crew or contributors before market close, the market will be closed as promptly as possible by Fugiman or JackSlack. As such, we urge investors to invest promptly after market open.

So, here are this week's graphs, and I'll have the exact numbers up in the thread tonight.
Last edited by JackSlack on 27 Oct 2011, 00:16, edited 10 times in total.
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JackSlack
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 24 Aug 2011, 18:19

And to roll things out, I'm investing my entire $1000 in Prescription Eyewear. I think it's due for a correction.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby Geoff_B » 25 Aug 2011, 00:35

Badum-tish!

I'm up for this. I'd like to split mine $600/$400 hatless/prescription eyewear.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby nicholasmc1 » 25 Aug 2011, 00:49

Im not sure which Week I'm investing in but I'll go 500/500 Prescription Eyewear and Hatless
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ANeMzero
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby ANeMzero » 25 Aug 2011, 01:43

I was expecting this to be another TF2 thread.
and now; back to me.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby SilPho » 25 Aug 2011, 03:01

All of the fiscal irresponsibility with none of the struggling to find money for food.

That said, has to be a full $1,000 in Hats.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby iamafish » 25 Aug 2011, 03:06

I'm gonna invest $500 in Other Eye-wear and $500 in prescription eye-wear. I can see an upturn in on the glasses front this week.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 25 Aug 2011, 03:24

BTW, as promised, here are this week's exact numbers.

Hats: 10.45%
Prescription Eyewear: 37.31%
Other eyewear: 2.99%
Wigs: 8.96%
The Hatless: 49.25%

I'm thinking iamafish may be onto something. Other eyewear could easily go higher (it's hit highs as great as 13.64% in the past) and that could REALLY boost his investment. And it's only actually hit 0% twice. Considering he's hedging into prescription eyewear, he's well covered and has a good chance to increase his investment. Nice work, iamafish!
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JackSlack
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 25 Aug 2011, 03:25

nicholasmc1 wrote:Im not sure which Week I'm investing in but I'll go 500/500 Prescription Eyewear and Hatless


Also, you're always investing in NEXT week's numbers, relative to this week's. So you're trying to find values you think are below what next week's will be.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 25 Aug 2011, 03:40

In fact, so that everyone's on the same page, here are all the numbers.

Hats
Ep 1. 5.77%
Ep 2. 13.73%
Ep 3. 44.59%
Ep 4. 6.52%
Ep 5. 34.04%
Ep 6. 19.15%
Ep 7. 10.64%
Ep 8. 30.19%
Ep 9. 15.25%
Ep 10. 10.42%
Ep 11. 13.04%
Ep 12. 6.06%
Ep 13. 10.53%
Ep 14. 10.45%

Prescription Eyewear
Ep 1. 36.54%
Ep 2. 15.69%
Ep 3. 56.76%
Ep 4. 58.70%
Ep 5. 55.32%
Ep 6. 72.34%
Ep 7. 91.49%
Ep 8. 41.51%
Ep 9. 54.24%
Ep 10. 39.58%
Ep 11. 71.74%
Ep 12. 34.85%
Ep 13. 40.35%
Ep 14. 37.31%

Other Eyewear
Ep 1. 13.46%
Ep 2. 9.80%
Ep 3. 5.41%
Ep 4. 4.35%
Ep 5. 4.26%
Ep 6. 8.51%
Ep 7. 4.26%
Ep 8. 1.89%
Ep 9. 8.47%
Ep 10. 0.00%
Ep 11. 0.00%
Ep 12. 13.64%
Ep 13. 3.51%
Ep 14. 2.99%

Wigs
Ep 1. 3.85%
Ep 2. 5.88%
Ep 3. 0.00%
Ep 4. 0.00%
Ep 5. 0.00%
Ep 6. 0.00%
Ep 7. 0.00%
Ep 8. 0.00%
Ep 9. 6.78%
Ep 10. 0.00%
Ep 11. 0.00%
Ep 12. 1.52%
Ep 13. 0.00%
Ep 14. 8.96%

Hatless
Ep 1. 46.15%
Ep 2. 68.63%
Ep 3. 32.43%
Ep 4. 34.78%
Ep 5. 40.43%
Ep 6. 40.43%
Ep 7. 27.66%
Ep 8. 30.19%
Ep 9. 35.59%
Ep 10. 50.00%
Ep 11. 26.09%
Ep 12. 53.03%
Ep 13. 56.14%
Ep 14. 49.25%
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby EikoandMog » 25 Aug 2011, 03:54

ANeMzero wrote:I was expecting this to be another TF2 thread.

This.

I'm putting everything I own into Hats.
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Haberley
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby Haberley » 25 Aug 2011, 04:27

JackSlack wrote:2. You can invest it in any of the five categories: Hats, Prescription Eyewear, Non-Prescription Eyewear, or Hatless.


I can only count four there... I'm guessing the other is wigs?

I'll go $600/$400 in Hatless/Non-Prescription :)
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Exachix
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby Exachix » 25 Aug 2011, 04:33

Im guessing the other is wigs, and as such I'd like $500 in Wigs, $300 in Hats, $200 in Other Eyewear.

Because someone needs to give some wig love.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby dackwards d » 25 Aug 2011, 04:50

Hmm. Hats seem to be pretty safe, rarely going below 10%, sometimes rocketing upwards and due to the format of the show they are guaranteed to never drop to zero. I will put $700 on Hats, but you know what? I feel like a gamble. The remaining $300 will go on the "Other Eyewear." It has shown a degree of riskyness but I feel it has good potential.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby Geoff_B » 25 Aug 2011, 04:51

Now we just need a James force to screw everything up :D
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby RytelCSF » 25 Aug 2011, 07:43

I will put $300 each into Hats, Prescription Eyewear, and Other Eyewear, as they all seem to have the potential for solid returns. Furthermore, I will put my remaining $100 in a non-interest bearing Opening Credits account so in the case that something disastrous happens and the entire market crumbles, I still have $100. 8)
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby nicholasmc1 » 25 Aug 2011, 08:52

This is harder than trading real stocks...and I trade real stocks
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby dackwards d » 25 Aug 2011, 09:01

RytelCSF wrote:I will put my remaining $100 in a non-interest bearing Opening Credits account so in the case that something disastrous happens and the entire market crumbles, I still have $100. 8)

Where's your sense of adventure? Gowhan, put it all on Pirate Hats. You can't lose.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 25 Aug 2011, 13:57

Got it. Rytel, I've gone ahead and kept that 100.00 in 'liquid'. This is purely a technical term, and your investment does not go up if the Dump Truck brings another horrible drink.

Currently, the market seems to be showing the most support for Hats (33%) followed by prescription eyewear (27%) then NPEW and hatless (17% each) with wigs only receiving modest support. (5%).
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 25 Aug 2011, 14:36

Also, I'm adding in one last rule, just to make things a bit neater and easier.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby Master Gunner » 25 Aug 2011, 15:24

I'd like to invest $100 in hats, $300 in prescription eyeware, $300 in other eyeware, and $300 in hatless.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby JackSlack » 25 Aug 2011, 15:28

Ahh, a diverse portfolio.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby Duckay » 25 Aug 2011, 15:48

I have a good feeling about prescription eyewear: I'm putting 500 into that, 200 into hats, 100 into other eyewear, and leaving myself 200 liquid.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby goat » 25 Aug 2011, 16:41

Ohh, I think I'll put 100 in hats and counterbalance that with another 100 in hatless.

The other 800 I'll trade in for 800 one dollar bills which I'll throw on my bed and roll around in. Alternately, 40 20$ bills and I'll milk a sweet contact high.
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Re: The Hat Market Game

Postby MowDownJoe » 25 Aug 2011, 17:46

I'm putting $300 each into hats and prescription eyewear. I'll hold the rest of my $400 for a rainy day. Unless we can short an option, but then everyone would just go short on wigs.
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