The Loading Ready Run Kickstarter

[Yaxley]

The ad that was supposed to be after the video this week makes me sad. I was really looking forward to a Double Fine LoadingReady Ouya Pebble.

[ecocd]

I think it would be more in the theme of the site to secretly bury them in the desert. This would certainly make a good brief cutaway gag in a cHustle video. "Remember what we had to do with the Rejected Wii Play shirts?" It should be too difficult to get your hands on an E.T. cartridge which Paul or James can "find" while digging a hole for the Wii Play t-shirts.

[empath]

Okay, now I have to knock over the Federal Reserve so I can fund that cH video idea! Snap up the RWP shirts, afford to fly the crew out to a desert location, and - most expensive of all - get hold of an E.T. cartridge.

[Yaxley]

If you buy all the Rejected Wii-Play shirts and fly the crew to a desert, I will donate my E.T. cartridge to the cause.

[Wooglie]

I'm surprised the unemployed announcer tier isn't selling faster. I had to change my pledge when I heard they were available. At least I have plenty of time to think of what I want Graham to say, I have no idea the moment.

[thatlaurachick]

I really wish I had the disposable income to take up the Rejected Backer torch; that 'make a patch quilt(s) and auction off at Desert Bus' idea sounds great...

This forum needs a +1 button...

[thatlaurachick]

The ad that was supposed to be after the video this week makes me sad. I was really looking forward to a Double Fine LoadingReady Ouya Pebble.

+1

[MatParker116]

Funding graphs from Kicktraq:




Current best case scenario:
Double Crapshots
Lava Bears
Things on my head

Current worst case scenario:
Crapshots

[My pseudonym is Ix]

If you'd believed that model three days ago, best case scenario was nearly half a million. I don't really think they're worth paying atttention to, even if I do log onto kicktraq some five times a day

[Laurnil]

Well, I just checked. They have less than 10,000 to go over 19 days to at least meet the goal. I think that's doable. I've pledged what I can. I really hope they can do it.

[Fantazme]

They should do it, but I think a lot of the stretch goals are looking really unlikely. Season 1

[Wolfwood723]

well maybe one day they will work on season one. I mean after the 2014 season they will have more time on there hands.

I also hope they fill some of it with finally releasing the other seasons on dvd, I'm dying to listen to their commentary and watch the outtake reels.

[Master Gunner]

Just $100,000 left to go for the Men of LRR calendar.

[ecocd]

I ... I just ... sigh. As I've stated numerous times before, I'm a statistician by trade. That graph. It's just. I can't. Ugh. That's just so so wrong on so many levels. It makes my brain hurt so bad. Please pretend it doesn't exist. Sometimes some information is worse than no information. This is one of those times.

Projections require a zillion assumptions and I don't have time to do anything with any sophistication, but I'll throw something out there that has some semblance of rational reasoning to it.

The remainder of the drive will primarily consist of the smaller backers, which in this case is still a crazy amount of about $40-60 / backer.

Without additional reward tiers causing spikes, we have some empirical minimum and maximum contributors and average dollar contribution limits to bound our projection. The spike at the beginning of the Kickstarter was driven by a combination of high pledge size and high quantity of backers. The anticipated spike end of the drive will be driven by the quantity of backers with no bump from the average donation since all the desirable premium tier rewards are gone.

Let's say 9/24 performs the same as 9/23 or about $4300.

9/25 is the last bump from new tiers and comes in at a low end of $62 / backer and 30 backers and a high end of about $90 / backer and 37 backers. So plug in between $1800 and $3300.

Days 9/26 through 10/10 will be baseline contribution weeks. These will range on the low end of $47 / backer and 21 backers to the upper end of $60 / backer and 30 backers. So go with $900 to $1800.

The final three days will consist of the same range of $47 / backer and $65 / backer with the minimum number of contributors ranging from 164 / day to a maximum of 356 / day. That puts us at $7700 to $23,000.

Take all of those numbers and I get ... well, the same range they do. Dammit. $164,000 to $225,000. That doesn't take into account any additional STORY GUY! $8k backers or desirable premium tier rewards people are willing to shell out for.

[thatlaurachick]

<snip>
Take all of those numbers and I get ... well, the same range they do. Dammit. $164,000 to $225,000. That doesn't take into account any additional STORY GUY! $8k backers or desirable premium tier rewards people are willing to shell out for.

But thank you for a lovely proof Ecocd.

[Master Gunner]

Technically the trending graph is 100% accurate, it's just also 100% useless, a relic from the early days of the site. The projection graph basically uses the same method you did, averaging data from other kickstarters to come to the same assumptions. Nonetheless, it is a rather simplistic model of limited utility (as evidenced by the ridiculously wide and optimistic ranges it was showing a few days ago).

[Fantazme]

Also, Id dint see the stream and am always liable to stupidity- what's the difference between Alchemist of Arland and Adventurer of Arland, outside of cost?

[Yaxley]

The price is the only difference between those tiers. More people wanted them, but LRR made the second set more expensive so the earlier backers get some value for pledging first.

[Laurnil]

Just $100,000 left to go for the Men of LRR calendar.

Wait...is this a thing? 'Cause....yea.

[Lurkon]

Just $100,000 left to go for the Men of LRR calendar.

Wait...is this a thing? 'Cause....yea.

$225,000-A Questionable Idea...
*Blame Kathleen for This One...
All backers will be able to download their own "sexy" Men (and mustachioed women) of LRR calendar for 2014. Shot by a professional photographer, this calendar will finally prove you can't really polish a turd.

[AlexanderDitto]

Just $100,000 left to go for the Men of LRR calendar.

Wait...is this a thing? 'Cause....yea.

Somebody didn't read the stretch goals carefully enough.

[Kapol]

I think that we're going to be kicked by the end of tomorrow.

[Master Gunner]

Not unless we get another huge bump from somewhere. But by the end of the week, no doubt.

[Pepsi-Plunge]

And then we turn our attention to Crap Shots.

[Ptangmatik]

Even Hari Seldon couldn't account for the Mule, you can't really extrapolate the future of the kickstarter campaign from its past, you'd be more accurate taking psychology of things like a camapign popularity quotient, word-of-mouth and the ticking clock of a soon-to-end campaign into account.

Also blind luck.

Having said that, it's reasonable to assume this one's in the bag