Canadian Federal Election 2015

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Arclight_Dynamo
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Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 02 Aug 2015, 17:06

Given that the writ was dropped today and we're officially into the campaign, I thought I'd start a thread for people to discuss the election. I'll be posting some general information in the top post, here, and keeping it updated. I'll also occasionally throw in a news item as important issues come up in the campaign.

Election Day is October 19th 2015

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Voter Information:

- Check to see if you are registered to vote
- Find out what ID you need to bring with you to vote
- Find your electoral district (Note: There have been changes this year)
- Find out who your MP is

Get Informed:

Party Policies

- Bloc Québécois Website & Party Policies (French Only)
- Conservative Party of Canada Website & Party Platform (PDF)
- Green Party of Canada Website & Party Platform (PDF)
- Liberal Party of Canada Website & Party Platform (PDF)
- New Democratic Party of Canada Website & Party Platform (PDF)

Background Information

- National Post video explaining who forms government following an election in the Canadian parliamentary system

News Coverage

- CBC News Politics Portal
- Globe and Mail Politics Portal
- National Post Politics Portal
- Toronto Star Election 2015 Portal

- CBC News At Issue Podcast
- CBC Radio The House Podcast

Polls

- CBC Poll Tracker
- ThreeHundredEight.com individual riding projections

Political Position Quizzes

- iSideWith Canadian Political Issues Quiz
- CBC Vote Compass

Confirmed Leaders' Debates:

Maclean's Debate (Now Complete)

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, August 6th, 2015
- Where: CityTV, CPAC, Rogers Radio Stations, and online (including Macleans.ca and YouTube)
- Topic: General, English-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Greens

Globe and Mail Debate (Now Complete)

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, September 17th, 2015
- Where: CPAC (in English and French), Globe Website, Globe YouTube Channel and the YouTube Election page
- Topic: The economy, English-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals

Pseudo-Consortium Debate (Now Complete)

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, September 24th, 2015
- Where: Network broadcast (CBC, Radio-Canada, CTV, Global)
- Topic: General, French-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Greens, Bloc

Munk School of Global Affairs Debate (Now Complete)

- When: 7:00 PM EDT, September 28th, 2015
- Where: CPAC, Munk Debates website
- Topic: Foreign affairs, Bilingual
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals

TVA Debate (Now Complete)

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, October 2nd, 2015
- Where: TVA, CPAC (in English and French)
- Topic: General, French-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc

Consortium Debate (Did Not Occur)

- When: October 8th, 2015
- Where: Network broadcast (CBC, Radio-Canada, CTV, Global)
- Topic: General, English-langauge
- Who: Liberals and Greens expected. Tories have declined. NDP will not enter any debate without Conservatives
Last edited by Arclight_Dynamo on 16 Oct 2015, 15:03, edited 43 times in total.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby AdmiralMemo » 02 Aug 2015, 19:12

Interesting that nobody's expected to get a majority...

So, I'm not Canadian, but I decided to take the "iSideWith" quiz to see how I'd fare in Canada.
Results - Click to Expand
Liberal: 60% (environmental, economic, health care, education)
Conservative: 54% (education, immigration, social)
Bloc Quebecois: 46% (environmental, health care, education)
New Democratic: 44% (environmental, health care, education)
Green: 28% (environmental, health care)
Communist: 27% (environmental, health care)
Christian Heritage: 24% (education)
Libertarian: 20% (domestic policy)

Most of Canada is somewhat green for me, meaning a mixture of agreement and disagreement.
Areas of agreement and disparity - Click to Expand
Very red areas for me (high agreement): Churchill, Manitoba; Richmond and East Side, Vancouver, BC.
Very blue areas for me (high disagreement): Labrador; Pontiac, Quebec; Prince Albert, Saskatchewan; Fleetwood, Vancouver, BC.

I'm not sure what this says about me, but here we go. :-)
Graham wrote:The point is: Nyeh nyeh nyeh. I'm an old man.
LRRcast wrote:Paul: That does not answer that question at all.
James: Who cares about that question? That's a good answer.

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Arclight_Dynamo
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 02 Aug 2015, 20:28

AdmiralMemo wrote:Interesting that nobody's expected to get a majority...


It's been fairly common, the last ten or fifteen years, actually. There've been some huge shifts in the political landscape in that time. This election is going to be... interesting. It actually has the potential to be seriously nation-changing.

Actually, I'm going to make a prediction, here. We'll see how it goes after the election...

The result is going to be a Conservative minority. In the current political landscape, that will be a very unstable government. It will last two, maybe three, weeks. There will be a confidence motion, and the government will fall. The NDP and Liberals will then agree to an informal coalition, and will ask the GG to allow them to form government without another election.

Let's see if I'm right...
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 02 Aug 2015, 22:34

Update: Announcement of election and reaction by party leaders

You can watch the Prime Minister announce the election, and the other party leaders react to the announcement, listed below. These are basically stump speeches, laying out the major themes of each party's campaign. They'll let you know what each party is about in this election.

Stephen Harper, Conservatives
Thomas Mulcair, NDP
Justin Trudeau, Liberals
Elizabeth May, Greens
Gilles Duceppe, Bloc
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby BlueChloroplast » 02 Aug 2015, 23:51

No more Harper. I think you underestimate the dislike of him and his policies. Yes, him, not his party. He implemented income-splitting on taxes (lets rich people with a spouse of lower income pay less tax, aka rich men with non-working wives) when his old finance minister said it was a stupid policy before retiring and dying a few days later. He is a control freak who silences party members, he muzzles scientists and doesn't do shit about climate change which will have impact whether we do anything or not. He removed the long form census which supplied important information. Cut funding to veteran affairs, robo-calls to suppress votes, messed up the powers and independence of Elections Canada, did bill C-51, hides stuff in omnibus bills, makes trade deals that don't benefit Canadians, and those stupid "Canada's Economic Action Plan" ads.

Now personal pet peeves and opinions: Conservative MP in my riding puts out stupid news letters with a leading/loaded question on it to mail back (might as well be " do you support Harper or do you punch children?"), I swear a hurricane wouldn't move his hair, will he admit he is from Toronto not Alberta?, and he only cares about staying in power.

Ok, I'm done.
TL;DR I dislike Harper and the Conservatives for MANY reasons.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby empath » 03 Aug 2015, 01:36

We just need to shift seven seats from Con to NDP, and then it'd be an orange minority; BlueChloro - if you could coax the people of your riding to oust your 'helmet-haired carpetbagger', that'd be one...

I think I'm with Arclight's prediction; we almost saw this sort of thing happen a couple of times in the past few years. The Con's dominance is slipping, but gradually.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Rikadyn » 03 Aug 2015, 05:54

Like Memo, non-canadian did the isidewith quiz

NDP:86
Lib:83
Gre:81
Com:80
Con:04
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby BlueChloroplast » 03 Aug 2015, 08:23

My mom said our riding is either conservative or liberal (even when Bob Rae and the NDP were big). Our riding managed to get a good Liberal candidate rather than the Conservative switch parties lady who did something offensive/stupid (can't remember what), I know some people signed up for the party to vote on the candidates, so we can hopefully turn my riding red at least, empath. I was looking through the party platforms that Arc_light posted and I liked the Liberal and NDP ones both so I feel good about voting Liberal strategically.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 03 Aug 2015, 08:43

Oh, speaking of strategic voting, I have a thing for that:

ThreeHundredEight.com's federal riding projections

What you've got there are the polling numbers for every individual electoral district in the country. You can use those to decide how to vote strategically. I'll give you an example.

Say you live in the riding of Bécancour-Nicolet-Saurel. Here are the polling numbers there:

Tory: 14.9%
Liberal: 15.7%
NDP: 29.8%
Bloc: 35.9%
Green: 2.6%
Other: 1.2%

The Bloc has a 65% chance of taking the riding.

Now, say that your main concern is that you do not want the Bloc to win. What you'd want to do is look at the other parties, find which one has the highest support, and go vote for them. In this case, that would be the NDP - they have the best shot at defeating the Bloc, given the current standings in the riding.

Now, say that you not only want to prevent the Bloc winning, but you're also uncomfortable with the NDP winning. What you'd do is look for the party with the next highest support (in this case, the Liberals), and you'd go vote for them. And so on.

Or, maybe you really don't want the Tories to take the riding. You'd look for the non-Tory party with the best numbers (that'd be the Bloc), and vote for them.

Maybe you don't want the Tories or the Bloc to win. Well, you'd look for the non-Tory, non-Bloc party with the best numbers (that's the NDP in this riding), and vote for them.

You get the idea.

(This is just an example to explain how to use the numbers to vote strategically - I'm not endorsing or discounting any parties, here)

I've updated the top post to include the riding breakdowns, as well.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 03 Aug 2015, 09:17

Also, heck, since other people are doing it, here's my results for the iSideWith quiz:

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby AdmiralMemo » 03 Aug 2015, 09:51

I am... concerned... that my highest rating of support for anything was 60% now...
Graham wrote:The point is: Nyeh nyeh nyeh. I'm an old man.
LRRcast wrote:Paul: That does not answer that question at all.
James: Who cares about that question? That's a good answer.

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 03 Aug 2015, 10:14

Enh, I wouldn't be, Memo. Quizzes like this aren't scientific or terribly accurate; they're just useful in getting you to think about the issues, and giving you a general idea of where you stand. Ideally, after taking the quiz, you'd go look at the party platforms directly (if you're voting in the election, that is).

Also, I seem to recall you saying that you're a Republican, right? Well, there's really no equivalent for that in Canadian politics. So it makes perfect sense that your answers would indicate you're somewhat outside the political norm for this country.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby AdmiralMemo » 03 Aug 2015, 11:04

I'm more Libertarian than Republican, but I got only 20% agreement with the Canadian Libertarian Party, so... That's kind of what concerned me. Are Canadian Libertarians completely different from US ones? And yes, I know this is hardly scientific or completely accurate, but still.
Graham wrote:The point is: Nyeh nyeh nyeh. I'm an old man.
LRRcast wrote:Paul: That does not answer that question at all.
James: Who cares about that question? That's a good answer.

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 03 Aug 2015, 11:28

Turns out I'm basically a dirty commie.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 03 Aug 2015, 11:59

Update: Current major political issues

As it stands right now, and as I see it, there are currently three major issues being discussed in the media: the length of the campaign, the new election law, and the economy.

Campaign Length

This will be the longest federal campaign in Canada since 1872. It will be the most expensive campaign for taxpayers ever (due to the increased length of the campaign requiring more spending by Elections Canada and other government agencies).

The official reasons from the Prime Minister for calling such a long writ period are to reduce the cost to the taxpayer (election rules are now in place, meaning that parties cannot spend government money to promote themselves) and to ensure that, instead of campaigning unofficially and outside the rules, all parties now must campaign within them. Both claims are dubious.

As to the former, as I've noted, this is going to be the most expensive campaign in history for the taxpayer. I'm not terribly troubled by that, to be honest, but the fact that the PM is claiming the opposite should be noted.

As to the latter... well, it's just total bunk.

First, the way the PM is selling this is to say that the other parties have already been campaigning for months, but that the Tories are only starting now. And they want to do it properly, meaning that they had to call for the start of the writ period, in order to ensure that they only campaign within the campaign spending rules. But those other parties are perfectly happy to have been campaigning outside of the rules. Problem is... all the parties have been unofficially campaigning outside the writ period (and thus the spending rules) for months. Including the Tories. As any Canadian who has so much as glanced at a television or turned on a radio can tell you, the Tories have been running this attack ad forever.

Second, the "playing within the rules" claim is disingenuous. Because the rules, recently changed by the Conservative government no less, benefit the Conservative Party over the other parties. See, there were changes to the campaign spending provisions. Formerly, there was a hard cap on how much a party could spend (on advertising and whatever else) during a campaign, no matter how long the writ period was. Under the new rules, though, the longer the campaign, the higher the spending limit. So, this being the longest campaign period in modern history, the limit is also sky-high.

The reason this matters is that the Tories have more money than the other parties. A lot more. Probably more than they are able to spend under the campaign spending limits. Now, with a short campaign, they'd be able to spend as much as they wanted before the writ period... but would be limited once the election was called. This is important because it's an attempt to keep all the parties to a certain level of spending in the period close to election day. It's meant to ensure fairness.

But now, with a long campaign period, the spending limits are upped. Meaning that the Tories can bring a larger portion of their war chest to bear in the period closest to election day. Probably more than any of the other parties can. The changes to the election spending law have arguably undermined the fairness of the system.

Green leader Elizabeth May and a former head of Elections Canada have come right out and called it unfair. I tend to agree, though you may not.

You can read more about this here, here, and here.

New Election Law

That leads nicely into a wider discussion of the new election law. Called the "Fair Elections Act," it caused quite a stir when it was before Parliament.

There are the changes to the spending rules, which I talked about above.

The new law also makes the kind of identification required to vote stricter, leading to accusations that the Conservative government is attempting to suppress votes. See, the sorts of ID no longer accepted by Elections Canada happen to be the kind most relied upon by students and low-income individuals. That is, people least likely to vote for the Tories. Moreover, Elections Canada is no longer allowed to advertise in "get out the vote" campaigns... which, again, tend to be targeted at young people who are unlikely to vote Tory.

Moreover, though this isn't a provision of the Fair Elections Act, the government has also been pushing to maintain a ban on Canadian expats who have lived outside the country for more than five years from being allowed to vote. This restriction has been in place since 1993, but the Tories are pushing hard to keep the ban in place.

All of this has led to the Organization for Security and Economic Co-operation in Europe to commit to sending election monitors to Canada for this election. They were asked to observe by opposition parties and civil society groups concerned about the new laws. They'll be monitoring the overall system (rather than individual polls) to determine whether the election is fair or not. We'll hear their determination in the weeks following election day. This, of course, is deeply embarrassing.

You can read more about this here, here, and here.

The Economy

Finally, there's the economic situation. It's, honestly, not great. When the economic numbers for June come out, if they show the Canadian economy shrank that month, Canada will officially be in recession. This is due mostly to slow economies in China and the US, as well as a glut of oil on the world market. Given that Canada is an export economy largely dependant on resources (especially oil), that's bad news.

The Tories are campaigning hard on the notion that they're the best stewards of the economy, and that the other guys will tank things totally with socialist overspending.

The problem with that is that the Tories' claims to being good with the economy are based on them saying "It was totally us!" when the economy was good and "It wasn't us at all - markets just do their own thing!" when the economy was bad. Which strikes me as nonsensical - you can't have it both ways. But, boy, they sure are trying...

You can read more about this here, here, and here.

Anyway, that's where we stand with the issues up until today. I expect a bunch of other things to come out as the campaign rolls along (i.e. Mike Duffy), but they don't seem to have emerged yet.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 03 Aug 2015, 12:06

Master Gunner:

You and me both. Though, I see you are a little bit more than I am. :P

AdmiralMemo:

The big difference between Canadian and American libertarians is that they're even more un-electable here than they are in the States.

There's also the issue of Canada being a country with a less individualistic and more social-democratic political reality than the US. Canadian libertarians need to bend to that in a way that American libertarians don't. I'd imagine, for example, that Canadian libertarians are in favour of socialized healthcare (or at least they say they are, to a certain extent and of a certain kind). Because not being in favour of socialized medicine is political suicide in Canada. You simply cannot do it.

I imagine things like that are where your disconnect with Canadian libertarians (and other parties in general) comes from.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby AdmiralMemo » 03 Aug 2015, 12:21

Interesting. I was just thinking "Could I actually live in Canada?" But different cultural norms are always a refreshing change in point of view to consider. Just because things are done one way doesn't mean it's the only way.
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LRRcast wrote:Paul: That does not answer that question at all.
James: Who cares about that question? That's a good answer.

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 03 Aug 2015, 12:25

Ha, you know, that's actually one of the reasons I decided to make this thread. On the one hand, I want to provide Canadian forum members with a place to talk about this stuff, and to point them to information I think is useful. On the other hand, I want to give non-Canadian forum members a bit of a glimpse of what it's like up here. Maybe it'll be interesting.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 03 Aug 2015, 13:47

New polling numbers:

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NDP: +1.1%, +5 expected seats
Tories: -0.7%, -5 expected seats
Liberals: +0.3%, +1 expected seat
Greens: -0.2%, No seat change
Bloc: -0.1%, -1 expected seats
Others: -0.2%, No seat change

This has the NDP and Tories tied for expected seat count. Though the NDP has the higher popular vote percentage.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Lord Chrusher » 03 Aug 2015, 14:01

On the subject of political differences between the United States and Canada: one thing to remember is that the variation with in Canada or United States is larger than the differences between the two countries. Canada does not have the South or the south west; the United States do not have Quebec. Politically and culturally, the Canadians and Americans living close to the boarder are not that different from one another.

Imagine if the United States was just Alaska, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine? Ignoring its likely different history, its politics would be much closer to Canada's.

On the note of the dislike of Harper, although his personal polling is low, be carefully not to fall into the "I don't know how Nixon won the election; no one I know voted for him" fallacy.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby fainded » 03 Aug 2015, 19:16

Just before Checkpoint today there was a knock at the apartment door and it was two Conservative party supporters doing a round of canvasing (on a provincial holiday, the day after the writ drops...).

Kind of surprising because I'm in a mid-town Toronto riding which been Liberal for the last 20+ years and in last Federal election I only got a single flyer (for a different riding). Not sure if they think my riding is in play this time or just a sign of the amount of preparation/money available.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby phlip » 03 Aug 2015, 20:48

iSideWith wrote:Conservative
no major issues

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Matt » 04 Aug 2015, 10:33

I need to figure out my precise riding, but looks like I'm in a liberal or NDP leaning area, regardless, which I'm more or less okay with either way.

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby AdmiralMemo » 04 Aug 2015, 10:48

Matt wrote:I need to figure out my precise riding
I was about to ask how often riding boundaries change that you'd need to do that. Then I remembered that there might not have been an election since you moved to Vancouver.

Canadian ridings are like US Congressional districts, right? Though I've only ended up in a different district once in the past 15 years, Maryland is a textbook case of gerrymandering gone wild. Out of our 8 districts, only 1, 5, & 6 make any sort of logical sense. I hope the ridings in most places in Canada aren't this bad.
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James: Who cares about that question? That's a good answer.

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Matt » 04 Aug 2015, 11:12

Looks like I'm Vancouver - Kingsway, a typically NDP riding.

Memo: I do not know the full details of how our ridings are mapped, but we are not gerrymandered like the U.S.

My riding is basically a rectangle.

Here is the city of vancouver's electoral districts: http://www.elections.ca/res/cir/maps2/m ... =59&lang=e

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