Canadian Federal Election 2015

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Arclight_Dynamo
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 08 Sep 2015, 10:47

I'm with you on the coffee cup guy being funny. Gross, but funny. Less so on the crank call guy - he sexually harassed a woman over the phone.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Jamfalcon » 08 Sep 2015, 12:16

Oh, yeah, absolutely. It's funny to me that they brought in someone who clearly seems to be a jerk, not that he actually did that. I have no love for YouTube "prank" people.
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Arclight_Dynamo
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 08 Sep 2015, 13:52

Ah, I get you - it's the schadenfreude you like. :P
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Jamfalcon » 08 Sep 2015, 14:51

Precisely what I was trying to say. :mrgreen:
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MisterDee
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby MisterDee » 11 Sep 2015, 11:08

So, the Conservatives have begun playing the "we're quite certain the polls aren't accurate, we're going to surprise people" soundbite in Quebec (Also known as the Prelude to the Symphony of Blame the Media Bias for the Inevitable Defeat in C minor.)

Obviously, they're only saying it in French right now, since the battle for Ontario isn't over.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 11 Sep 2015, 11:16

TBF, the cons of all parties are most likely to outperform the polls due to 1) solid base of decided voters WHO ACTUALLY VOTE 2) exceedingly professional ground game/GOTV 3) money
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Lord Chrusher » 11 Sep 2015, 12:45

Also there may be a 'shy Tory' effect at play.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 16 Sep 2015, 10:43

Update: Catch Up

Oh, dear... it's been a while since I did one of these. Time to catch up a bit...

Globe and Mail Debate:

First of all, I want to remind everyone that the second leaders' debate is tomorrow evening. Here's the info:

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, September 17th, 2015
- Where: CPAC (in English and French), Globe Website, Globe YouTube Channel and the YouTube Election page
- Topic: The economy, English-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals

I'm a little cheesed that Elizabeth May won't be participating, but maybe this will knock some sense into the polls and get us away from our three-way tie. Speaking of which...

Polls:

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Welp. It looked like the Liberals were pulling away a bit about a week ago, but that was short-lived. So here we are with a three-way race. Again. Still.

Which makes the following little video from the National Post kind of relevant...

Who Forms Government After an Election?

Because it's not necessarily who you think. The National Post does a credible job explaining what the everloving heck goes on in the Commons after an election.

My money's still on the Tories winning the most seats, but either the NDP or Liberals (whichever of the two has the most seats) forming government with a governing accord signed by the other. I'd say it lasts three years. In fact, I'd imagine the accord is going to be written to guarantee a government for that long. And we're probably going to get about a week of Parliamentary/Governor General wrangling following the election before we find out who the PM is.

Expect a lot of "This is a coup!" "This is undemocratic!" and "This is a coalition! And you know that that means..." from the Tories following such a result. It will all be an attempt to prey on Canadians' misunderstanding of how their own Parliamentary system works. They did it before during the prorogation crises. Don't fall for it; please watch the NP's video.

And if you have any questions about how it works, please ask away. I have a law degree with a specialization in the Canadian constitution. I'd be happy to answer.

Green Platform:

The Green Party was the first out of the gate with its platform. I haven't read the document yet, but you can find it here. I've updated the main post, and will add the other parties' platforms as they become available.

Mansbridge Interviews:

Peter Mansbridge recently sat down with the three main party leaders and Elizabeth May. Each was a half hour interview. Again, I've not had a chance to watch them yet, but you can find them online here:

Stephen Harper
Tom Mulcair
Justin Trudeau
Elizabeth May
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Metcarfre
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 16 Sep 2015, 12:38

Urrrrghhhhhhggggggg I forgot the prorogation bid'ness.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby empath » 16 Sep 2015, 17:06

Yeah, we've had counters to the 'coup' crap bandied around in the past, too: history will repeat itself?
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 16 Sep 2015, 18:01

You know, honestly, I think it's a failure of the civics lessons we get (or, rather, don't get) in school.

The only mandatory civics class I had to take was one semester in grade eight. That's it. Nothing else. And it didn't touch on any of this stuff. Hell, I even took electives in law, politics, and world issues. They didn't touch this stuff, either.

And when I think back to the number of maps of Canada I had to colour in, all the way through grade twelve (!), it just makes me angry for the lost opportunity. Teach something worthwhile instead of telling me what the country looks like again.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby empath » 16 Sep 2015, 21:09

Yeah, I had a single semester of Canadian Law, and a two whole semesters of Canadian Government (which DID cover the Westminster Parliamentary Democracy), but that was over twenty years ago...
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 17 Sep 2015, 09:22

Update: Polls... *Sigh*

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...why do I bother? The three big parties are within one percentage point of each other. That's well within the margin of error. We have no idea who's leading.

Reminder: Debate Tonight

Again, a reminder that the Globe and Mail debate is tonight. Here's the information:

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, September 17th, 2015
- Where: CPAC (in English and French), Globe Website, Globe YouTube Channel and the YouTube Election page
- Topic: The economy, English-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 17 Sep 2015, 10:59

What part of the site do you get that image from? Because it doesn't reflect the current status of the polltracker.
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Arclight_Dynamo
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 17 Sep 2015, 13:39

I put the numbers into a table and upload the image. The numbers are only current at the point I make the post.

...and I see the polls have updated since I did so earlier today. Maybe even more than once. Cripes. Polls don't usually come in this fast - I imagine there was a rush to get good pre-debate numbers. In any case, here are the current standings as of the time of this post:

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Maybe I'll be able to get away without having to upload another one before tomorrow. :P
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 17 Sep 2015, 16:00

The debate has started.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 17 Sep 2015, 17:51

And that's the end of the debate.

First impression? Spicy. Very spirited, compared to the last debate. Maybe too much; there was a lot of talking over each other. I feel it could have been more strictly moderated. I think a lot of all that came from the fact that it was clearly a three-way match rather than two dominant parties and an also-ran.

Mr. Trudeau:

He seemed the most on message of the leaders. He wasn't the greatest orator, frankly, and didn't seem terribly comfortable. He was also a little thin on his answers, but I imagine that was mostly due to returning to the message at every opportunity. Of the three, I felt his policies were the best.

Mr. Mulcair:

Fantastic orator; best of the three for selling his plan. Unfortunately, I felt his policy wasn't as good as Mr. Trudeau's. He did get deeper into it than Mr. Trudeau did, though. His one major fault, I think, was that he slid right over the question about the cost of his greenhouse gas reduction plan. It was more noticeable for how deep he went into answering other questions. He also managed to reign in Smiling Tom, and unleashed Angry Tom, just a bit, which I think was to his credit. He had the best rapport with the moderator, had the best jokes, seemed the calmest, and, frankly, the most Prime Ministerial.

Mr. Harper:

Well... meh. The main message was "Everything is fine. We're doing a great job. Why can't you see it? Huh? HUH?! COME ON!" Which is to say he was on the defensive, maybe even a little placid. Not attacking the others, not tearing down their policies. I guess that's good for playing to the base - the people who agree with him will probably also be saying "COME ON!" - but I don't think he made a real case to other voters. And, I mean, "Things suck right now... but we're the best you can hope for. Vote Tory!" isn't the greatest message.

So... who won? Depends what you're looking for.

Do you already like the Tories? Harper won.
Do you like good policy? Trudeau won.
Do you like a good speaker? Mulcair won.

But... overall... I think I need to give the edge to Mr. Mulcair. I still prefer the Grits' policies, but Mulcair did a better job this time out.

Edited to add:

They ended the stream by showing the leaders' media scrums immediately following the debate. They showed Mr. Trudeau... and Mr. Mulcair... but not Mr. Harper. I'm not sure if they just didn't show his scrum (which would be unfair of them) or if he refused to do one (which would be kind of stupid of him).
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 18 Sep 2015, 07:49

or if he refused to do one (which would be kind of stupid of him).


But completely normal in this election.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 18 Sep 2015, 08:36

Or the last one. Or his entire time in government...
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 24 Sep 2015, 10:24

Reminder: Debate Tonight

Yes, another one. This time in French, and with the participation of both the Greens and the Bloc. Expect the niqab, pipelines, and the Clarity Act to be big issues. Expect also for Mr. Mulcair to be on the defensive. Here's the info:

- When: September 24th, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
- Where: Network broadcast (CBC, Radio-Canada, CTV, Global)
- Topic: General, French-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Greens, Bloc

Note: The CBC broadcast and webcast will be simultaneously translated into English.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 24 Sep 2015, 16:02

The debate has started.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 24 Sep 2015, 18:00

Hm. Interesting. Especially compared to the previous debates. First, it's clear that the moderation in this debate was a lot tighter, and it benefited from that.

Ms. May and Mr. Harper were kind of non-entities, this evening. I wonder if they were less comfortable in French, or if Mr. Harper has written the province off. Mr. Harper also started to look really quite uncomfortable whenever he was criticized directly - and the cameras were sure to get a close-up of him taking the hit.

M. Duceppe has the hard nationalist vote on lock. Not unexpected, but some of his comments on the niqab were... yeesh. It's clear that his party is only running in Quebec. I don't think he really pried to many voters away from the NDP; the polls will tell in the next few days, though.

Mr. Trudeau was a lot less combative this time out, and I think it was the right move. He seemed solid and reasonable. I also wonder if he's more comfortable in French; he certainly seemed more sure of himself than he did in the previous English debates. He kept going back to talking points, as he did in previous debates, though he seemed less scripted, especially as the night went on. One of those points was that the federal government matters to Quebeckers, directly. Was he playing for Ontario votes in Quebec? The Grits are really in play in Ontario, less so in Quebec - and promoting the federal government in Quebec plays well in Ontario. Or was he playing for the Quebec federalist vote, and trying to pull some soft nationalists by throwing them a bit of a bone in direct benefits? Interesting positioning.

Mr. Mulcair sounded like he was saying the same things as he's been saying in English. Maybe a bit of a nationalist bent to it, but that's expected. Also a bit more progressive than he's been in English. Certainly, in substance, he's consistent. So the cross-country inconsistency he's been accused of was a non-issue. Also interesting that he described the Senate as a British relic. Certainly a better tack than M. Duceppe ranting about the monarchy for some reason. Baffling. As to Mr. Mulcair's position on the Clarity Act... well... I think he split the difference. For people who lean nationalist, he did well. But for people who lean federalist, I think Mr. Trudeau blew him out of the water.

So who took it? Again, depends.

For hard nationalist Quebeckers? Duceppe won.
For soft nationalist and soft federalist Quebeckers? Mulcair won.
For hard federalist Quebeckers and everyone outside of Quebec? Trudeau won.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 28 Sep 2015, 10:25

Reminder: Debate Tonight

And it's a big one. It's the foreign affairs debate, hosted by the Munk School of Global Affairs. Plus, it's bilingual, so it's not a French-language debate pandering to Quebec, like the one last week. This one is relevant, folks.

Here's the info:

Munk School of Global Affairs Debate

- When: 7:00 PM EDT, September 28th, 2015
- Where: CPAC, Munk Debates website
- Topic: Foreign affairs, Bilingual
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals

Note - this debate is at 7:00, not 8:00 like all the previous ones have been.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 28 Sep 2015, 15:00

The debate has begun.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 28 Sep 2015, 15:31

Well, I'm not terribly impressed with the simultaneous translation they're providing. I'm sitting here watching them speak in French, with no translation at all...

I think they're having technical problems.

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