Canadian Federal Election 2015

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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 28 Sep 2015, 15:42

I'm watching CPAC, and am getting simultaneous French translations.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 28 Sep 2015, 15:49

...well, this has become heated over the issue of revoking citizenship. The audience is booing Mr. Harper.

Edit:

Master Gunner wrote:I'm watching CPAC, and am getting simultaneous French translations.


Yeah, the Munk site has gotten its stuff together. I'm getting it now, too.

Edit 2:

Or not. I'm switching to CPAC.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 28 Sep 2015, 16:05

Trudeau really has trouble waiting his turn.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 28 Sep 2015, 16:16

...and now the audience is laughing at Mr. Harper.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 28 Sep 2015, 16:21

Well, he is making pretty laughable statements.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 28 Sep 2015, 16:34

Hm. Laughing at Mr. Mulcair, now. To be fair, Ontario has had... experiences... with NDP governments. Different from other provinces. Good pivot from Mr. Mulcair, though.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 28 Sep 2015, 16:52

And the debate has ended. Translation and party inclusion issues aside, I think this was the best one we've seen so far. The moderation was top-rate. None of this speaking over each other nonsense we've been seeing. (Well, there was still some, especially from Mr. Trudeau, but it was reigned in quickly)

I thought it was a good showing for all three leaders, frankly. Mr. Harper wasn't in front of a receptive audience, but he played well to his base. Mr. Mulcair remained on form. And Mr. Trudeau did very well, I thought. In fact... I think he did the best of the three. And the simultaneous polling the Munk Centre did seems to bear that out.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 28 Sep 2015, 17:12

I wasn't a fan of the woman translator CPAC had, she seemed to be constantly out of breath and rushing over herself, which was distracting from the candidates.

For the debate itself, I think Harper defended himself extremely well, despite being very vulnerable on many of these issues. Granted, his defense was largely made up or misleading statements, and playing the "my reality is better than yours" game, but he played it well (especially considering the audience).

Mulcair seemed to spend most of the debate trying to lump Trudeau and Harper together, which makes sense for the strategy of putting forth the NDP as the "new voice of the Left". However, considering how much Trudeau has improved over the course of these debates - and the Liberal's rise in the polls since the start of the election, I don't think that's doing Mulcair many favours anymore. As Trudeau comes off more as proper contender for PM, that kind of rhetoric starts to seem like more hot air from Mulcair.

Trudeau certainly has come a long way since the start of the election. I think his biggest fumbles were in trying to butt in and talk over the others too much. Had he being more reserved and precise with when to jump in, I think he may have hit harder. When he was able to land a hit though, Trudeau did well. I don't think he had to put up with as many attacks as Mulcair or Harper did, which works out in his favour. Overall he's growing more into the "statesman" image, but still comes off as young and brash next to Harper and Mulcair.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby OccamsRazor » 29 Sep 2015, 09:59

I have to say, these "Justin Trudeau supports the terrorists!!!!!" clickbaity, shock-and-awe titles are starting to grind on my nerves. It completely, utterly misrepresents the point of the argument, almost to an absurd degree.

The issue at hand being whether or not immigrants and dual citizens should be able to have their citizenship revoked, under any circumstances. Whereas born-Canadians would have no such worries.

I get both sides of the debate, and I respect everyone's right to have their opinion on that issue, but misrepresenting the issue as an endorsement of terrorism is, in my opinion, despicable.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 30 Sep 2015, 09:02

So this is an interesting trend I've noticed in the polls over the last month or so...

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The NDP has slid hard - a full 10% in popular support from its highest point to its lowest point right now. And it looks like the Liberals have been the ones who gobbled up the bulk of that support.

I wonder if the bump in August was due to lingering knock-on effects of the NDP's win in Alberta and the relentless attacks on Mr. Trudeau by the Conservatives for months. Now that we've gotten further away from the provincial win and have had time to see Mr. Trudeau on his own terms, I wonder also if those effects have lost their punch.

Interesting, in any case.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 30 Sep 2015, 09:47

At the start of the election through the first debate, the NDP was poised as the strongest competition to the Conservatives, which I think was the most significant boost to their numbers (followed by the after effects of their win in Alberta).

With Trudeau pulling the liberals together though, and showing marked improvement over the past couple months (helping to overcome all the Conservative attack ads), they're pulling a lot of that "Anything But Conservative" vote back to their side - and once that block of voters starts to shift, a lot of people quickly pile on to the liberal side.

Strategic voting is going to be a lot more visible this election after what happened last time.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 30 Sep 2015, 09:51

You know, I think you're exactly right about that. I think it'll be interesting to see if the Liberals can keep up the momentum in the last few weeks - as you say, that would have a good chance of shifting votes to them, for strategic reasons.

The other alternative is that they run out of steam, and the vote on the left remains split. Which is bad... except at that point, I'm convinced we'd see a governing accord, and the Tories out of power.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 30 Sep 2015, 10:10

Even with the vote split on the left, I don't see the Cons being able to pull off another majority unless there's some sort of major upset. At which point, I see a governing accord to be the most likely situation, as you said, just to keep the Conservatives out - even if it's just by a couple of seats.

Coalition is still too much of a dirty word these days to go over well, and both Mulcair and Trudeau need to show that their parties are capable of leading the country, so regardless of what the seat count turns out to be in the end, it's in their best interest to support each other and keep whichever of them has the most seats in power. Another election in anything less than 3 years would likely swing the results back to the Conservatives (Harper would just have to stand back and say "Hey, at least I managed to keep the government running while I was in power!").
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Lord Chrusher » 30 Sep 2015, 11:49

The Liberals are much more of a known quantity nationally than the NDP so the centre left are likely shifting back to them as Trudeau displays competency.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby OccamsRazor » 01 Oct 2015, 06:57

I really wish we had some kind of preferential balloting system. The idea that we may end up with another Conservative government because the Liberals and NDP have split the left cleanly in half is a little frustrating to me
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 01 Oct 2015, 09:04

We won't. The Tories aren't going to win a majority, and both the NDP and Grits have said they'll not support a Tory minority. We're getting either an NDP or Grit government. Even if the Tories get the most votes.

Do expect a lot of screaming and dissembling from the conservatives about a "coup" after the vote, though. They want people to think the party with the most votes automatically becomes the government. That's not how the system works, though.

In any case, both the NDP and Grits have promised electoral reform if elected. Probably some form of PR, not preferential voting.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby OccamsRazor » 01 Oct 2015, 09:19

That's very true, we'll likely have a left-majority, even if we see a Tory minority.

I guess part of me has little faith in these two-party 'alliances' that oppose a minority - I think there was a similar distribution the last time the Tories won a Minority and the result was...ineffectual all around.

But you're right, it does seem like the NDP and Liberals are more willing to play nice up front if a Tory minority should happen, so that's encouraging at least.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 01 Oct 2015, 10:54

The last time the Tories had a minority (2006-2011, with an election in 2008 as well), the Bloc was the "third-place" party with the NDP coming after them - a much more serious split in parliament than we would have today. The 2008 post-election distribution was Cons: 143, Libs: 77, Bloc: 49, NDP: 37.

Any move to block or take down the Conservatives in that period would have required the support of all three parties, not just the Liberals and NDP. A coalitions was proposed, but national sentiment at the time was against that (particularly due to the conclusion of the Bloc).

Today the Cons, Libs, and NDP are all basically even on expected seat count, with the Bloc a non-player now. So the Liberals or NDP would only need a fairly small amount of support from the other party to gain the confidence of the house and form government. If they decided to take it a step further and have a formal coalition government (unlikely), then they would have a clear majority in Parliament without having to bring in the Bloc; making it far more palatable in terms of public opinion.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 02 Oct 2015, 09:21

Reminder: Debate Tonight

Probably the last one, too. Here's the info:

TVA Debate

- When: 8:00 PM EDT, October 2nd, 2015
- Where: TVA, CPAC (in English and French)
- Topic: General, French-language
- Who: NDP, Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc

Judging by all the media talk going into this, by the way, I think I have an answer for why the NDP has slid so much: the niqab issue. Their base is in Quebec, and their stance on the niqab isn't popular there. At all. It's apparently a huge hot-button issue in the province, for reasons having to do with Quebecois nationalism and identity.

Personally, I think the NDP's and Liberals' stance on the issue is correct and principled. Kudos especially to Mr. Mulcair for standing firm, even though he knows it's costing him votes.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Master Gunner » 02 Oct 2015, 09:55

It's a shame to think that in this country, the "niqab issue" could turn the course of the election.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 02 Oct 2015, 10:02

Agreed.

I mean, I understand why it's a thing in Quebec. I just think it's wrong and, as you say, shameful.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Hekla » 02 Oct 2015, 19:41

Well, that was the first debate I watched through, and it was moderately interesting. The most notable thing (at least in comparison to the UK debates) was that it's pretty much three politicians with roughly similar political views aside from a few key issues, against a single right-wing figure.

Half of the time, the other three agreed with each other, or had minor differences. As much as Trudeau and Mulcair argued with each other, they really didn't sound all that different.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 02 Oct 2015, 21:42

Well... Gilles Duceppe emphatically does not have similar political beliefs to the others. He's a separatist, with all that entails.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Hekla » 02 Oct 2015, 21:54

It certainly made Duceppe stand out, framing everything in terms of Quebec in much the same way Plaid Cymru back in the UK always frame issues in relation to Wales (as one does as a separatist movement). I think it makes a much greater appearing of difference than there actually is. Harper being so far away from them has pushed them into the same ground.

Thinking back, there was one point where Mulcair and Duceppe were facing off and I said out loud 'they agree!'... And sure enough that was the next thing Duceppe said.
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Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 04 Oct 2015, 04:38

Few days late on this, but a good read: http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comme ... of-trouble

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