Canadian Federal Election 2015

Drop by and talk about anything you want. This is where all cheese-related discussions should go
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 16 Oct 2015, 17:14

Just an FYI, apparently it's no longer illegal to discuss vote resultes before polling has closed in all of canada: https://twitter.com/kady/status/655093987183849472
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 16 Oct 2015, 17:21

Yes, there was a legal ruling some time ago about that.

It does cause certain difficulties, though - the original reason for the blackouts was to prevent media reporting on outcomes in the east before the polls in the west had closed, thus modifying the outcome.

The current solution is that polls are open later in the east than in the west, so they close at around the same time.

I'm not a fan of that. Seems to me polls should be open 8:00 AM to 8:00 PM, local time, in all timezones. But you only start counting ballots after the polls in BC have closed. No idea why they don't do that.
User avatar
Lord Chrusher
Can't Drink Possible Beers
Posts: 8913
Joined: 29 Apr 2005, 22:53
First Video: Door to Door
Location: In England.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Lord Chrusher » 16 Oct 2015, 17:49

Back in the 1990s when the Liberals would win pretty much every seat in Ontario, the polls would close in BC and you would turn on the CBC to find Peter Mansbridge announcing that Jean Chretien had won another majority.


Remember that the English media are predominantly based out of Toronto. They would be annoyed it there was only results after 11 pm local time.

In the UK, results are only announced when all the votes in a constituency are counted. This means that it is usually well after midnight when the outcome of the election starts to become known. In Canada, results are announced when votes at each polling station are counted which means partial results are available for most electoral districts with in an hour of the polls closing.
Image
We are all made of star dust. However we are also made of nuclear waste.
Remember to think before you post.
Image
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 16 Oct 2015, 17:54

Oh, so Mansbridge would get a little tired and annoyed? Terrible reason; I say make him wait.

And I say that as someone who lives in Ontario. I'd need to wait, too. But it's fairer that way. I can bloody well wait.
User avatar
CommanderKeen
Posts: 475
Joined: 03 Dec 2008, 23:51
First Video: Halo: The Future of Gaming
Location: Vancouver
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby CommanderKeen » 17 Oct 2015, 21:02

Atifexe wrote:I must admit, I'm curious - what was this recommendation?


To vote for the NDP candidate, despite two polls both placed after the national liberal uptick suggesting the Liberal candidate has the best shot at defeating the Conservative in the riding.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 17 Oct 2015, 21:27

Hm. That is interesting. ThreeHundredEight.com has the Liberal candidate in your riding with an 89% chance of winning the seat, as of the time I write this post.
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 18 Oct 2015, 05:26

Arclight_Dynamo wrote:Hm. That is interesting. ThreeHundredEight.com has the Liberal candidate in your riding with an 89% chance of winning the seat, as of the time I write this post.

It should be noted that those riding projections aren't really accurate.

The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated. But a note about those. Throughout this campaign, the projections on this site have been quoted by many as if they were actual polls. They are not, as I have made explicitly clear. They are estimates based on province-wide trends and, when available, riding polls. They are not an aggregation of polls done within a riding, as a public poll has not been conducted in most ridings. That is the case with Outremont, which is currently projected to go Liberal by a whisker.

Understand this: there have been no public polls in Outremont, so we do not know for certain if Thomas Mulcair is in any trouble or not. What the projection says is this: if the NDP's support in Quebec decreases by a uniform proportion throughout the province, and if Thomas Mulcair is unable to withstand those trends to a greater extent than the average party leader in his situation, then he might be in tough in his own riding. Those are big assumptions. What the projections suggest is that Outremont is a riding to watch, and one the Liberals could theoretically pick up. The projections do not suggest that Mulcair is actually trailing in his riding.

The same applies to every single riding projection, and I urge people to use them as a rough guide to the race, rather than a precise measurement of actual support.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 18 Oct 2015, 09:51

Oh, I'm well aware. They're non-scientific estimates. But they're the best we've got, and as corroborating evidence to what CommanderKeen is hearing elsewhere, they're useful.

But, yes, you're right to point it out.
User avatar
Danielle Pepin
Posts: 822
Joined: 15 Oct 2009, 04:23

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Danielle Pepin » 18 Oct 2015, 10:01

Make sure your candidate plans to take action on electoral reform to make the system more proportionally representational cause "first-past-the-post" sucks:
http://campaign2015.fairvote.ca/
Image Image
Click here, receive tweet: http://twitter.com/DaniellePepinAI
User avatar
Lord Chrusher
Can't Drink Possible Beers
Posts: 8913
Joined: 29 Apr 2005, 22:53
First Video: Door to Door
Location: In England.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Lord Chrusher » 18 Oct 2015, 16:55

Meh, you would be replacing one flawed electoral system with another flawed electoral system.
Image
We are all made of star dust. However we are also made of nuclear waste.
Remember to think before you post.
Image
User avatar
Hekla
Posts: 96
Joined: 12 May 2012, 16:48
First Video: The Whole Story: Desert Bus
Location: The Northern Hemisphere... For now.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Hekla » 18 Oct 2015, 17:07

What electoral system you appreciate depends on what you value in results. If you can't go without a single local representative, and don't mind the national level politics being horribly skewed, then FPTP systems are probably for you.

Saying they are all flawed is all well and good, but they do provide for different outcomes. I for one would like to see more people consider the voting system as something that could be changed, rather than an unchangeable annoyance. You can see it in the UK, where people like me love Welsh/Scottish/European/London mayoral elections just because they are sooo much better at making votes count for something.
I'm also QuintonDreaming. Stupid username availability prevents me from always being an Icelandic volcano.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 18 Oct 2015, 21:24

Election Day is Today

Polls are open at different times across the country. You can find out when they are open in your area here.

You can find out where and when to vote, exactly, by entering your information here. (Enter your postal code and submit. There will be a link on the new page called "Where do I vote?" Click it, enter your information, and submit. You will be given the exact place where you are to vote, including a map.)

You must have the proper ID in order to cast a ballot. You can see the list of acceptable ID here. (Voter registration cards are not acceptable ID.)

You do not need to be registered to cast a ballot today. You can go to your local polling place, be registered, and then cast a ballot today. Elections Canada staff will be happy to help you.

Please vote. Participation matters. Your voice should be heard.
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 19 Oct 2015, 05:43

If you didn't see John Oliver talk the election: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0V5ckcTSYu8

EDIT: Also, CBC's Election Special will be streamed on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWFNl0K18A4
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 19 Oct 2015, 07:04

Just home from voting! Quick and painless - no lines, took about five minutes, start to finish.

Now to stretch out on the couch in front of CBC for the day...

(Seriously... I follow politics like most people follow sports. This is like my Superbowl.)
User avatar
empath
Posts: 13530
Joined: 28 Nov 2007, 17:20
First Video: How to Talk Like a Pirate
Location: back in the arse end of nowhere

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby empath » 19 Oct 2015, 07:39

Interestingly, I (unwisely) decided to expose myself to the toxic quagmire that is YouTube comments attached to that video and was pleasantly surprised to see that takahata101 had made a comment encouraging us all to vote.

I feel that justified all the idiocy I had to wade through, and I'm about to bundle my sick self up and toddle down to the local school and 'exercise my franchise'.
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
Metcarfre
Posts: 13676
Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 13:52
First Video: Not Applicable
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 19 Oct 2015, 07:49

Maybe you guys can help...

Obviously, I'm voting ABC. In my riding (Burnaby North-Seymour) it's very much a toss up. I lean NDP, and most local polls show the NDP candidate as the best chance of a non-Con win.

Vote Together nevertheless recommends the Liberal candidate.

Anyone But Harper.net shows the NDP as the strongest vote.

308 shows the Liberal candidate as the strongest.

Thoughts?
*
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 19 Oct 2015, 08:05

It's unknowable, unfortunately.

I'd go with VoteTogether over the other two, since it actually links proper polls. That said, the most recent poll in your riding (Mainstreet/Postmedia) is old... and it only has the Liberals leading by an amount well within the margin of error.

So... literally no way to know who has the best chance of winning.

Were I you, I'd consider two ways to vote.

1) You like the NDP. The NDP candidate is essentially in a tie with the Liberal candidate. So vote NDP.

2) The Liberals are doing much better than the NDP nationally (though not in B.C.). This might mean that the Liberals will benefit from "change" voters siding with the more popular non-Tory party nationally - especially in B.C., once results from the east start rolling in. If that's the case, you'd want to vote Liberal.

Of course, there's no way to know which scenario is correct. You've gotta judge, and decide for yourself, I'm afraid.
User avatar
empath
Posts: 13530
Joined: 28 Nov 2007, 17:20
First Video: How to Talk Like a Pirate
Location: back in the arse end of nowhere

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby empath » 19 Oct 2015, 08:07

...aaaaand voted. Just as easy and prompt as Arclight experienced. It took longer to get dressed before leaving the house than it did to enter the polling station and do all that and come back out :D

For me, I'm going back to bed with my tissues and fluids to recover from this cold; wake me if and when we give Steve-o the boot!

And yeah, I'd say in these circumstances, you should vote how you wish, Met - either option you're considering seems to have an equal chance - may whomever you vote for be the one to win the riding!
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
Metcarfre
Posts: 13676
Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 13:52
First Video: Not Applicable
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 19 Oct 2015, 08:17

Well, I'll be voting after work. I think my inclination is to vote NDP - I've had their sign hanging in my window for months now, after all.
*
User avatar
Jamfalcon
Posts: 3325
Joined: 08 Aug 2011, 13:59
First Video: Killer Instinct
Location: Somewhat nearish Vancouver. Kind of.
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Jamfalcon » 19 Oct 2015, 11:06

Vote cast! No line to wait for, but the polling station was pretty busy and seemed to have a fairly steady stream of people. I didn't have any issues despite getting an incorrect voter card, too (directing me to a polling station twice as far as the one I went to, which the Elections Canada site said was the correct one). Looking forward to watching the coverage once polls start coming in.
"Jamfalcon's a super weird name" - Graham

I wrote a book!
Image
User avatar
JackSlack
Posts: 4572
Joined: 15 Oct 2010, 19:46
First Video: ENN, but I forget which.
Location: Sydney, Australia

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby JackSlack » 19 Oct 2015, 11:53

Best wishes, Canada. Hope you dump Harper for good.
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 19 Oct 2015, 12:52

So, 2 and a half hours until Polls close in Newfoundland.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 19 Oct 2015, 15:00

That's it -- polls have closed in Newfoundland and results are about to start rolling.
User avatar
Metcarfre
Posts: 13676
Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 13:52
First Video: Not Applicable
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 19 Oct 2015, 15:13

Red strikes first!
*
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 19 Oct 2015, 15:29

First CBC Call: Cost of Bays-Central-Notre Dame goes to the Liberals.

Polls have now closed in Nova Scotia, PEI, and New Brunswick.

Return to “General Discussion”



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests