Canadian Federal Election 2015

Drop by and talk about anything you want. This is where all cheese-related discussions should go
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 27 Aug 2015, 10:30

Update: Polls, Gritty Keynesianism, and a Correction

Finally, a poll with some movement

Well, well... this is interesting. The most recent polling aggregate is showing an over nine point lead for the NDP over the Tories:

Image

If this keeps up, we may have broken the about-equal trend we've been seeing since this thing got underway. Time will tell. Also... while I still don't think a majority is in any way likely, it is interesting that the NDP's "High" seat projection is starting to tickle up against majority territory.

Liberals to run deficits until 2019

Justin Trudeau today announced that a Liberal government would run modest (under $10 billion) deficits for its first three years in power, then balance the budget by 2019. The spending is intended to support infrastructure projects and to try to pull the country back from recession.

You can read about it here.

What's notable is that, of the three major parties, only the Grits are willing to entertain the notion of deficit. The received wisdom has become that you need to run a surplus, or you're managing the economy poorly (I tend to think that's BS, but whatever). Keynesianism has been out of fashion since the Tories took over (despite their massive Keynesian spending during the 2008 recession... but never mind that). So this is risky; it goes against what voters have been told since at least 2006... maybe even 1993. It may pay off, though, if it comes across as more truthful or realistic.

I mean... the NDP is saying they'll balance the budget right out of the gate, without explaining how they'll do it in a recession. And the Tories are absolutely, categorically denying that we have a deficit right now, which is dubious at best.

Of course, none of this really matters. It's all rhetoric and positioning at this point, since no party has released a fully-costed plan, yet. The NDP are trying to show how fiscally conservative they can be to reassure centre-right voters in Ontario; the Tories are trying to show that, yes, they've managed things beautifully and everyone should just keep trusting them; and the Liberals are trying to differentiate themselves from the other parties, maybe pick up some votes on the NDP's left, and present themselves as the realistic alternative.

But until they release costed plans? It's all just wind and hot air.

Correction

I made a little oopsie in the first post of this thread. I provided links to what I called "Party Platforms." Those aren't actually platforms; those are just party policies or principles on their websites. The platforms haven't been released yet. I've corrected the wording on the original post, and I'll provide links to the actual platforms when they come out. Sorry about that.
User avatar
Metcarfre
Posts: 13676
Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 13:52
First Video: Not Applicable
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 27 Aug 2015, 15:10

The new Ipsos poll will likely tick those NDP numbers back a bit.

I also find it a little bit (a lot) weird that the NDP is promising a balanced budget. I favor Keynesian economics in the broad strokes (to the extent I understand economics, which is little) and am generally an NDP supporter, so I'm a bit miffed.
*
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 27 Aug 2015, 15:18

Hm. Interesting. Looks like that one isn't included in the aggregate, yet. Shame - I was hoping we'd started to move out of the three-way tie. Guess not.

As to the NDP's balanced budget promise... yeah. I'm not a fan, either. I'm a lefty (I can go either Grit or Dipper, depending) and a Keynesian. So... that sucks. But I think I understand why they're doing it. It's to look serious and responsible (read: "fiscally conservative") to Ontarians.

It's good politics, but not good policy.
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 30 Aug 2015, 03:52

The CBC finally released their Vote Compass: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/
User avatar
Metcarfre
Posts: 13676
Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 13:52
First Video: Not Applicable
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 31 Aug 2015, 08:38

Oooh, 3D!

This tests shows me closer to the Grits than the NDP, but at this point I'm still likely to vote NDP.
*
User avatar
Matt
LRR Crew
Posts: 9742
Joined: 14 Mar 2004, 00:19
Location: Victoria, BC
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Matt » 31 Aug 2015, 18:35

Same with me, Met.

I came up slightly more Liberal than NDP, but I'll probably go NDP anyhow.

-m
Image

I am not angry at you.
User avatar
Jamfalcon
Posts: 3325
Joined: 08 Aug 2011, 13:59
First Video: Killer Instinct
Location: Somewhat nearish Vancouver. Kind of.
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Jamfalcon » 31 Aug 2015, 21:53

I went Green, NDP, Liberal, but with only a seven percent difference total (80%/78%/73%). Looks like the most recent polls have the Tories at a slight lead over the NDP in my riding, with the Liberals way behind. So still an easy choice.
"Jamfalcon's a super weird name" - Graham

I wrote a book!
Image
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 01 Sep 2015, 09:44

Here's my Vote Compass results:

Click to Expand
Image


I do seem to be bucking the trend in this thread a bit, though - even though I lean more NDP than Liberal (and more Green than either), I'm 100% voting Liberal.

That's mostly for strategic reasons (the Liberal candidate in my riding is most likely to unseat my incumbent Tory MP and is in fact projected to win by a fair margin), but also because there's some weird stuff going on with the positioning of the NDP and Grits at the moment.

The NDP has been moving to the centre since Mr. Mulcair became leader, and it seems to be sprinting centre-ward in the past couple of weeks. The Grits, meanwhile, seem to be shifting left to snap up lefty NDP voters left in the cold.

Now, I don't know if this is just all talk to gain vote-share, or if it's a genuine shift. But A) as a lefty, I'm liking what I'm hearing from the Liberal camp a bit more than what I'm hearing from the NDP camp and B) I wonder if the Vote Compass is taking these possible shifts into account or whether it's operating on months-old assumptions about party positions and behaviour, thus providing incorrect results.

Would an up-to-date Vote Compass, if I gave it the exact same answers, peg me as a Grit supporter over an NDP supporter? I wonder.

Anyway, it doesn't matter so much. People shouldn't rely on things like the Vote Compass to decide their minds - they should follow the issues and read the platforms. And, in any case, we're in for either an NDP minority or a short-lived Tory minority followed by an NDP government propped up by an NDP/Liberal governing accord.
Last edited by Arclight_Dynamo on 01 Sep 2015, 10:27, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 01 Sep 2015, 10:25

Update: Current Polls, Recession, and Tory Snubs

Polling Numbers:

First up, since I've been lax with it, are the current polling numbers from ThreeHundredEight and the CBC:

Image

Oh. Back to a three-way race. Joy.

Not much to see here, folks...

Canada is in Recession:

Yes, the good news just keeps coming. Word came from StatsCan today that we've had negative GDP growth for two quarters in a row. That's a recession. The price of oil is in the tank, the dollar is in the tank, and the economic numbers coming out of China and the US aren't hot.

More joy.

What we're hearing from the parties is what you'd expect. Tories: "We're not calling it a recession, and it's not that bad. In fact, it's good! Everything is fine." NDP and Grits: "No... you screwed up and it's bad. But we won't!"

The interesting thing for me on this issue is the relative economic positions of the NDP and Liberals, especially as relates to deficit spending. The NDP have committed to balancing the budget out of the gate, while the Liberals have committed to running deficits for the first three years in government, then balancing the budget by year four.

Now, the amounts we're talking about aren't really relevant; surplus or small deficit, it doesn't much matter in material terms. What does matter, I think, is what these commitments say about the attitudes of the two parties and leaders when it comes to economic management.

The NDP seems to be adopting an economically conservative stance, while the Grits seem to be adopting an economically liberal stance, at least in relative terms (this is part of the NDP-Liberal left-right switcheroo I talked about in my last post). The parties are laying down markers, indicating how they'd govern and blowing dog-whistles. It makes sense given how each party is trying to win votes (the NDP is trying to convince Ontario to vote for them, and the Grits are trying to pick up who the NDP leaves behind).

But... yeah. Fact remains, the Liberals are indicating an economic position to the left of the NDP. No idea if it's hot air or actual policy from either policy, but there you have it. And, heck, as a Keynesian, I favour the Liberal deficit/lefty approach going into a recession. But your mileage may vary.

Two Tory Snubs:

First off, the Ottawa Citizen (the local daily, here) recently heard that Tory candidates were being told to avoid media contact. So they decided to test it. They contacted 318 Tory candidates to see if they'd respond to a request for an interview.

14, nationwide, agreed.
10 declined (some quite snippily).
The remainder, a full 87% didn't respond in any way.

That's... bad. The writer of the piece speculates that it's because the Citizen is a big media organization out of Ottawa, part of Postmedia. And Tories don't like Big Media, especially out of Ontario, and especially especially out of Ottawa.

Not sure if it's true, but it seems plausible, given past declarations and behaviours.

That said, and to be totally fair... the Citizen only contacted Tory candidates. I'd like to see the same thing happen with other parties. You can't really ding one party without comparing them to other parties.

Second, remember upthread when I mentioned that the mayor of Ottawa meets with all local candidates to brief them on municipal issues? And that the Greens and Liberals met with him just fine? And that the NDP are going to do so on the third? And that, most importantly, all the Tory candidates bailed on the meeting?

Well, they tried again yesterday.

They blew it.

Only two Tory candidates (including Minister Pierre Poilievre) showed up. Out of nine in the region. Then the non-Poilievre candidate refused to speak to media after the meeting (despite media availability being part of the meeting), running off while one of his staffers literally blocked a door to prevent media following him.

Choice quote:

One of them, Ottawa South candidate Dev Balkissoon, slipped out immediately afterward and walked away when I tried to ask him whether he’d learned anything from the hour-long session 0n transit, social housing and economic development.

“If you’d like to schedule an interview, I’d recommend you speak to our press secretary,” he said.

An aide stood in the door to a stairwell as Balkissoon headed down the steps in the direction of City Hall’s parking garage.


Interesting note? Mr. Balkissoon wanted the reporter to talk to his press secretary to arrange for an interview. Well... the Citizen contacted a bunch of Tories to set up interviews, remember? Mr. Balkissoon was one of the candidates who never got back to them in any way. So... this is really disingenuous, no?

"Contact my press secretary, who will never talk to you. That way, I can leave now without talking to you, and then never talk to you in the future."

At least Minister Poilievre spoke to media.

Now... why did only two candidates show up? Well, all the other local candidates were busy standing behind Mr. Harper, who was in town on a campaign stop. You know... literally just standing behind him on stage as he talks to TV cameras. You've seen those people.

The Tories just happened to schedule the make-up meeting with the mayor at a time when most of them would be unavailable. Total coincidence. Not intentional. Sure. Suuuuure...

Unimpressed.
User avatar
SAJewers
Posts: 505
Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 11:18
First Video: Tuscon or Bust
Location: Halifax

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby SAJewers » 01 Sep 2015, 14:11

I ended up with NDP/Lib/Green/CPC 77%/71%/70%/41%

Also, I've finally started seeing Liberal signs recently in my area. Still seems like all the lawn signs are NDP signs though.

Arclight_Dynamo wrote:I wonder if the Vote Compass is taking these possible shifts into account or whether it's operating on months-old assumptions about party positions and behaviour, thus providing incorrect results.

At the bottom, it'll give you sources for where they're pegging each party.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 04 Sep 2015, 10:55

Update: Polls, uh, Updated

Time for big changes right? Exciting things, yes? Let's take a look!

Image

...crud.

The race is tightening even more. Somehow. The only interesting thing is that the Tories are back on top in seat count. But not by much. And they're still behind in the popular vote. So, er, no change, I guess?
User avatar
Hekla
Posts: 96
Joined: 12 May 2012, 16:48
First Video: The Whole Story: Desert Bus
Location: The Northern Hemisphere... For now.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Hekla » 04 Sep 2015, 11:46

I'm finally on PEI, so of course I'm now surrounded by political advertisements. It was pretty obvious since I crossed the border between Maine and New Brunswick that there was an election going on!

And looking at the polls posted here, I'm amused by how much of a three horse race it is appearing to be. I'm sure I'll be less amused if the Tories stay in power somehow, but for now it's interesting. Also, I notice the UK like one Green MP situation. I guess it's nice that there is one.
I'm also QuintonDreaming. Stupid username availability prevents me from always being an Icelandic volcano.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 06 Sep 2015, 09:59

Update: Updated Polls Updated... With an Update

Image

Ah, see, now this is what I was looking for with the last update: movement.

It's still a tight three-way race (tighter than last time, even), but you'll notice that the Tories have dropped all the way to third. And this isn't the result of just one poll - a bunch of polls are showing consistently that this is a real shift.

Should be interesting to see if this holds out, or if it's a blip. I can't imagine that the Tories' bumbling on the refugee file this week has done them any favours.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 06 Sep 2015, 10:05

Hey, Hekla, how're you finding the Island? It's been years since I've visited PEI. Do me a favour and have some lobster and some scallops - they're delicious.

Also, any plans to visit other parts of Atlantic Canada while you're in the region?
User avatar
Hekla
Posts: 96
Joined: 12 May 2012, 16:48
First Video: The Whole Story: Desert Bus
Location: The Northern Hemisphere... For now.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Hekla » 06 Sep 2015, 12:32

I did have some lobster (in the form of a stew) just before crossing the bridge. I'm sure I'll have plenty of opportunity to eat lobster here in the next couple of years!

I do quite like Charlottetown, although, much like most of North America, everything is still a bit car centric. On the other hand, I now own a car, and I'm also easily within walking distance of the centre of town.

Otherwise, it's quite pretty, and in this weather, it's really rather nice. I already have an assignment for my course, so I don't have that much time free, but I imagine it'll stay quite nice through September.

Also, the local politics in the local newspapers is quite funny. It's scale and tone reminds me of living in rural Wales.
I'm also QuintonDreaming. Stupid username availability prevents me from always being an Icelandic volcano.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 06 Sep 2015, 14:07

Ha! Well, yes, the Maritimes aren't the most cosmopolitan region of the country. (And I say that as someone whose parents are both from rural Nova Scotia). Halifax is probably different, but you're a long way from there.
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 06 Sep 2015, 17:45

...I barely even know where to begin with this one. I'll just post the headline, and a link to the article:

Conservative candidate Jerry Bance caught in CBC sting urinating in homeowner's coffee mug

...just, what?
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 07 Sep 2015, 09:35

...and now a second Tory candidate has been seen on video doing inappropriate things:

Tim Dutaud, who was running for the Tories in Toronto-Danforth, was forced out Monday after he was identified as a man known as the UniCaller in prank YouTube videos that included him pretending to orgasm while on the phone with a woman and mocking people with disabilities. The videos appear to have been posted about six years ago.


Link

Both candidates are no longer running. The party turfed them.

But... holy crap, guys. This is who you have running for you?
User avatar
empath
Posts: 13530
Joined: 28 Nov 2007, 17:20
First Video: How to Talk Like a Pirate
Location: back in the arse end of nowhere

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby empath » 07 Sep 2015, 10:12

Whomever they can get that'll spout the party line of toxic policies and backwards mentalities; maybe they'd finally noticed the semi-recent scandals Across The Pond with the UK House of Lords, and thought a mere 'dubious expense account claims' scandal over here wasn't 'keeping the Colonial End up'? :(
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 07 Sep 2015, 10:29

Honestly, yeah, the parallels between the House of Lords scandals and the Senate scandals haven't been lost on me. I thought it was an interesting coincidence, until I realized that the Senate was designed to replicate the Lords in form, so it makes sense that similar scandals would be possible in both places.

Still... yeeks. It'd be nice to avoid these things...
User avatar
Mums
Posts: 695
Joined: 11 Apr 2013, 06:06
First Video: Checkpoint "Socially inept"
Location: Stockholm Sweden

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Mums » 07 Sep 2015, 14:18

I'll drop this song by my friend Geoff Berner here. I'm not that well read on Canadian politics but I think it's quite funny.
Probably NDP
Sit down. Get ready. Sit down again!

The perfectly lying, lying bastad!
MisterDee
Posts: 98
Joined: 08 Apr 2013, 06:41
First Video: It's Magic

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby MisterDee » 07 Sep 2015, 20:23

Arclight_Dynamo wrote:But... holy crap, guys. This is who you have running for you?


That's... pretty much how most election go, to be honest: lots of niggling about numbers that are going to be thrown out the second the election is over, maybe one or two substantive issues being discussed, and the inevitable parade of videos showing backbencher candidates doing stupid things.

The thing is, the big parties run between twenty to thirty quality candidates in safe ridings (to ensure that they have enough not-utterly-stupid MPs to sit on the Cabinet), and try to find other quality (or at least decent) candidates in competitive ridings to try and win the election.

If there are extra safe ridings, they're given to less electable party insiders as rewards. Guaranteed losses, on the other hand, go to whomever want to try their hand at running, and that usually means either younglings wanting to take one or two for the team before graduating to an actual winnable riding, or random dudes and dudettes.

The stupid usually comes from that last category. Those candidates aren't thoroughly vetted (since they're just there to allow the party to get the votes (and resulting public funding) from the riding), so of course a few dumbasses slip through.
User avatar
Metcarfre
Posts: 13676
Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 13:52
First Video: Not Applicable
Location: Vancouver, B.C.

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Metcarfre » 08 Sep 2015, 10:02

I mean some Liberal candidates have had the same, or similar problems.
*
User avatar
Arclight_Dynamo
Posts: 540
Joined: 18 Jul 2014, 12:44
First Video: Desert Bus 1

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Arclight_Dynamo » 08 Sep 2015, 10:11

Sure. I believe one Liberal candidate had to withdraw due to having written some anti-semitic tweets. And I don't want to discount that. But, at the same time, urinating in a coffee mug is weird in a way offensive statements are not, y'know?
User avatar
Jamfalcon
Posts: 3325
Joined: 08 Aug 2011, 13:59
First Video: Killer Instinct
Location: Somewhat nearish Vancouver. Kind of.
Contact:

Re: Canadian Federal Election 2015

Postby Jamfalcon » 08 Sep 2015, 10:18

I'm sure my opinion might be a little different if they were from a party I supported at all, but I feel like the big difference is that these two are really, really funny, (to me, at least :P) in a way offensive tweets clearly aren't.
"Jamfalcon's a super weird name" - Graham

I wrote a book!
Image

Return to “General Discussion”



Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests