Cake Mafia - Game Over Man! Game over!

[2stepz]

And let's not go hanging anyone else on the grounds of encouraging participation, as that was clearly ineffectual... not that my favored suspect was any less harmless.

With that statement, you are just TELLING the Criminals to stay quiet and they will live. I don't like that idea. I understand that we are running short on our delicious stock, but I have a feeling the bland are just hiding out now, avoiding suspicion. Who could blame them?

Posting Status Update:

We have heard little to nothing from:
Kara - (OOC Grounding)
JesterJ
Kkief
Citin
Necrovale
MasterGunner

[Master Gunner]

I would just like to say that targeting people who are quiet is a time-honoured and tested Mafia strategy. I will never attack someone just for using that strategy, as it encourages participation (which is good), and (according to Allen! at least) those just hanging around doing nothing are almost as bad as the mafia themselves (moreso if they prevent the lynching of a mafia-cake).

As Yukikaze has made statements to indicate he has past experience with mafia, I would like to FOS: Yukikaze (for now) for the defense of those that do us no good.

As for Beta-guy, I have never known it to be a good idea to go after someone who invites us to go after them. We lost a townie that way who turned out to just be a miller. In other games it has being a politician, or even a Jester. So most decidedly I will not vote for Beta-guy.

So I support Tapir12 in his FOS of everyone voting for Beta-guy.

[Beta-guy]

ok, I withdraw my invitation to vote for me, while it does stop the chance of killing a cake that might prove more useful, it would also impede hunting down the mafia. I'll continue to attempt to help out. sorry for creating confusion on this topic.

[DmitriW]

Unvote

Fair points all around, but now I'm back to having NO IDEA what to do. Rooting out criminals is harder than one would think...

[Yukikaze]

FOS: Yukikaze

I was merely pointing out that the lynching of the silent guy on Day 1 got us nowhere, so it's not a good strategy to rely on.

Using someone's silence as a piece of evidence, however, is perfectly valid.

I'm still suspicious of 2Stepz for that chocolate-trail following. A post twiddling your fingers is, in my mind, more incriminating than not posting. Yes, it makes you not one of the silent ones, but if you had anything to contribute, I'd have thought you would have.

But then, we all know how good my aim was yesterday.(sorry, Hawkaris)

[Citin]

The problem with our current situation is all that we have been able to do so far is pointless speculation. I don't want to be involved in the killing of any more lovely innocents.... I'm used to things being so black and white, all this speculation and here say is leading to a divorce of my senses.

At this point I have no idea who to vote for

[NecroVale]

Posting Status Update:

We have heard little to nothing from:
Necrovale

There's little I can say right now. I don't know anything more than what's been said, and I haven't seen anything that's made anyone stand out more than anyone else.

[kkief02]

Jester speak up.

Vote: Jester

I have barely heard anything from you this game. What's up with that?

(Sorry i've been away guys, stuff has been keeping me preoccupied.)

[JesterJ.]

The more you talk, the more suspicion you garner. So I read along, and if I feel compelled to act I do, but banter for the sake of banter is what gets innocent people lynched.

[Cake]

*bing* Is anyone still playing?

[DmitriW]

The voice from beyond the grave is right. Much as we risk suspicion by talking, we risk letting the killers escape justice with our silence!

We much redouble our efforts to investigate these killings, and determine who among us killed our Owner and Baker!

[kkief02]

The more you talk, the more suspicion you garner. So I read along, and if I feel compelled to act I do, but banter for the sake of banter is what gets innocent people lynched.

But bantering for the sake of bantering is also what finds us some scum

[tak197]

I agree kkief, bantering does help expose scum, but at the same time, people are afraid that if they say anything, it can be turned in on itself and made to sound like they are scum.

[Cake]

I'm going to put a time limit of Friday night on this. If no one is lynched by then, I'll end the day then.

[DmitriW]

We need to come to a consensus soon...the day won't last forever, and we can't let the day pass without at least trying to remove a Scumbag, right? We'll be handing them a free kill if we don't try something... :S

[tak197]

OOC: Do you think that we should call Christmas day a pause in the game? I know a bunch of us probably have plans involving travelling, family visiting, and so on, but because it's Thursday, then we would only have one day to come to a concensus. I'm just making that suggestion, it's up to the moderator and the rest of you.

[Citin]

OOC: Haha Christmas day is probably when I'll be around the most, I'm working almost every other day this break until school starts up again.

[Tapir12]

We need to come to a consensus soon...the day won't last forever, and we can't let the day pass without at least trying to remove a Scumbag, right? We'll be handing them a free kill if we don't try something... :S

Agreed. To sum up my recent thoughts:

a) based on the patterns of the killing, it seems we have some kind of vigilante who managed to find a mafia-cake without this cake having given much indication he was mafia. Hence... somebody knows something.

b) We lost a Mason, but maybe there are some other mason members who know who knows who gum had planned to recruit before his untimely demise.

c) I FOS'ed the people who went along with the beta guy sacrifice: 2stepz, DimitriW and the_amitiveness

If anyone can add to these thoughts, please feel free.

In fact, I'll go as far as to Vote: 2stepz.

Her vanilla/chocolate theory was weak at best and had little evidence to support it. She was one of the Beta Guy band wagoners. And throughout the game she has consistently revisited the list of people who have not been posting. This suggests a pattern of shifting the focus on to other people, never with very strong reasoning. 2stepz, explain yourself!

(OOC: I'll probably be around on Christmas)

[DmitriW]

OOC: I will also be around on Christmas. My family focuses more on Christmas Eve than Christmas Day.

IC:

Tapir, some good thoughts there, but the rest of us have been stumbling around almost as much as 2stepz is--and can anyone here say they expected a Chocolate cake to be among the bland cakes in the Mafia? I was expecting plain yellow-cakes and such to be the scum, not chocolate.

And, for the record, I promptly removed my movement against Beta-guy when he decided to be a good townie and keep helping us with our cakehunt.

I do agree about trying to find our Vigilante cake and any Masons that Gum may of spoken to. Will no one come forward?

[Yukikaze]

It would be bad to come forward, as the Vigilante has thus far shown himself to be a more effective Mafia slayer than the rest of the town has. As long as he can keep it up, I'm all for him staying hidden. Same with the Masons: they're a powerful investigative force.

I agree largely with Tapir's assessment, and while the rest of us haven't gotten much further, it wasn't for lack of trying. The Beta Bandwagon theory is pure genius in my mind: any mafia who'd seen that would have jumped at someone actually volunteering to die. Saves them a lot of work.

I'm not voting for 2Stepz yet, but only to give her a chance to explain herself better than before.

[the amativeness]

Stuff

I agree with all of this (including the FOS of me damn), except for one thing:

The Mason leader was killed on day 1, and wouldn't have had time to recruit. So if there still exists a masonry, it won't have many members.
(Please correct me if I'm wrong, as Cake didn't list who people are in the deceased list on page 1).

[Joystick Hero]

Stuff

I agree with all of this (including the FOS of me damn), except for one thing:

The Mason leader was killed on day 1, and wouldn't have had time to recruit. So if there still exists a masonry, it won't have many members.
(Please correct me if I'm wrong, as Cake didn't list who people are in the deceased list on page 1).

The mason leader did die on the first day, which is what makes me believe that his cause of death was simply trying to invite the wrong person into his masonry.

So, here are my theories for causes of death last night.

Hawkaris - Ice Cream Cake (Body Guard) -Most likely the mafia target for that night. We should look over what he said last night to see if we can find out why they killed him.

Emperor Gum - Pineapple Upside-down Cake (Free Mason) - As I said, I'm pretty sure this death was caused from good 'ol Emperor trying to recruit the wrong cake at the wrong time. Trying to discern this one by things said yesterday may be possible, but difficult as he may have chosen randomly.

Metcarfe - Chocolate Chocolate Cake (Mafia framer) - Either a well-done vigilante kill, or, more likely, a third element is out there killing people at night ((serial killer)). As much as I would like to think that a vigilante could make an effective kill the first night, I can't shake the feeling that a good cake would not "try their luck" in this manner on the first day. Not to mention that metcarfre wasn't exactly guilty looking by any of his previous statements. At least, not that I can see.

So I suggest that we look closely at Hawkaris' past actions to find one of our killers. Who did he suspect before JTaylor? What kinds of observations did he make? Perhaps we can make today count by answering these questions.

While on that subject Unvote. My previous vote was one of compulsion, made before I had gotten all my thoughts together, which is something that I shall not do a second time.

[Kara]

FOS: Yukikaze

I was merely pointing out that the lynching of the silent guy on Day 1 got us nowhere, so it's not a good strategy to rely on.

Using someone's silence as a piece of evidence, however, is perfectly valid.

-OOC: Back, sorry about that. I got grounded til Christmas, how sucky is THAT?

Okay. I have a few things to toss in here. If we lack evidence or even good guesses, I think it can be a good thing to kill those who are silent. Not only does it keep people from wanting to just go silent in order to avoid being lynched, but it's a valid point that there will probably be at least a few mafia who aren't particularly involved in the game. It's not a bad choice if there are NO other leads.
However.

Vote twostepz

You've convinced me for the time being Tapir. I hadn't even really thought of twostepz all that much in that regard, and if she argues her association with the mafia well I'll consider taking off my vote. Tapir's point is too good to ignore.

[Joystick Hero]

After some detective work, I have come up with nothing other than frustration. Hawkaris suspected no less than half of the entire bakery, and had suspicion returned by a quarter. Here's the interesting part though, even though he FoS'd and voted recklessly, there was only one person who returned suspicion to him, that being Kara. Not sure if that means anything though. Here's a basic list of Hawkaris' interactions with our fellow cakes yesterday.
-----------------------
People he suspected:
Jtaylor (Voted - Lynched (Innocent))
Master Gunner (Suspected for lack of substance in posts)
tapir12 (FoS'd, Suspected for lack of substance in posts)
Kara (FoS'd, Inactivity (Grounded?))
CyberTractor (FoS'd, Died (inactivity))
Necrovale (Voted, but for a bad pun (Withdrawn))
the amativeness (Voted, but for misworded post (Withdrawn))
JesterJ (FoS'd, Inactivity (Claims he never speaks on day 1))

People who FoS'd Him:
DmitriW (Withdrawn before day's end)
Kara (Believed Hawkaris to be reckless (Considering the length of this list, looks like he was))

People who Voted Against Him:
Yukikaze
Beta-guy
Emperor Gum (Dead)
-------------------------

As far as I can tell, the two surviving people who voted against Hawkaris are probably innocent, as they voted for Hawkaris after a four-person lynch train had already begun against JTaylor. There's no reason I can think of for the guilty party to split up votes against innocent people, so they look to be good cakes. At least until some other evidence comes forward to prove otherwise.

As I recalled everyone's statements yesterday ((or, read their posts)), another thing bothered me. While I hate going in circles with theories, I went back to Emperor Gum to see if there would be any leads there. Now, while my logic that The Amitiveness was probably the person he would have recruited may be flawed, it is worth noting that yesterday Emperor only said two things. One being his vote, and the other observing that The Amitiveness was being treated roughly for accidentally saying the wrong thing. Then again, he may have just chosen a person randomly last night, so who knows.

What I do know is that further investigation is going to be required before I can even start to have a suspect. I'll be sure to keep everyone posted on anything I find.[/u]

[Joystick Hero]

A bit more digging before I take a breather. Here's a list of the votes against JTaylor yesterday, along with the reason that person gave for voting. (Which I encourage other people to challenge, as I may have misinterpreted someone's logic for voting.)
-------

1. DmitriW (Off color comments, inacitivity)
2. Kara (Drawing attention away from himself, believed him to not be a cake)
3. tapir12 (Believed that he was wanting attention)
4. tak197 (inactivity)
5. 2stepz (Wanted to know JTaylor's role)
6. Citin ((Quoted because I don't gettit))

Since a massive amount of force was used to push the baker into his mixing bowl it seems like his death was either caused by a human or a very large cake....

I find it hard to trust something I don't understand.

7. metcarfre (Believed JTaylor acted strange to remove suspicion from himself (?), wanted a more active bakery)
8. Hawkaris (Voted for the lynch train not aimed at him)
9. the amativeness (Hammer Vote)
10. Joystick Hero (Acting strangely)
-------

Of those people, I find the logic behind tapir12, Citin, and metcarfre's votes to be the most flawed. Both tapir12 and metcarfre believed that JTaylor wanted to draw attention with his comments, and therefore should be killed. Interestingly enough, today, when BetaGuy came out and said "Hey guiz, kill meh", tapir12 thought that killing him was a bad idea, when it was the most attention drawing move ever. A bit strange to change voting logic like that overnight. Meanwhile, Citin voted because he didn't understand what was going on, and the amativeness didn't even give a reason for his vote. At all.

TL;DR? Here's the important part.

Vote: tapir12.
1. He pretty much lurked all day yesterday.
2. He changed his voting logic dramatically overnight.
3. Is much more active today, although little to no new information has rolled out.
4. He said "I can see why Hawkaris might be targeted" in his first post today. That was the ONLY one of the three he mentioned. I would have let that slip if it wasn't for my belief that Hawkaris WAS the target last night, while Emperor died from his own actions.
5. He made the first post of the day. (Minor, but if I have noticed anything, the killer is usually not far from the scene of the crime.)
6. There is overlap here and in my 'people who Hawkaris suspected' list. Also minor, but a contributing factor nonetheless.