Cake Mafia - Game Over Man! Game over!
Joystick, this isn't an RPG, it's OK to metagame, and you're making a lot of assumptions that, while perfectly valid were this a real-life murder case, aren't applicable here, such as locationality of players. We're scattered across the whole world. Tapir was simply around first to post on the new day.
Also, Tapir mentioned in another thread that she's a she. Not major, just derails my train of thought every time I read it.(Granted, I thought Lyinginbedmon was a girl until I heard his voice, so I really shouldn't be so picky.)
Now for a point-by point rebuttal in defense of tapir12
1 and 3: plenty of people lurked all day "yesterday." The only victim was Cake, and we can't start a proper investigation based on that until other accusations begin flying around. With two days and three more murders(plus what I'm still sure is a very lucky Vigilante shot), there's a good deal more information available for speculation. Also, you'll note that I've been less active lately. I have less speculation to bring to the table than I did yesterday.
2: So did I.
4: Is simply an observation, but if you look back, you may notice that I was one of the leaders in suspecting Hawkaris, and being one of the louder, more verbose players, my speculation's going to be more visible than that of others. With you and me saying the most, there's little wonder why many of the other players seem to simply mirror our logic.
5: addressed above. She was simply around first.
6: I wouldn't lent much weight to Hawkaris's suspects. As you mentioned, he suspected half of the other players, which is why he fell under suspicion by quarter. I was actually quite surprised to discover he was innocent.
Also, Tapir mentioned in another thread that she's a she. Not major, just derails my train of thought every time I read it.(Granted, I thought Lyinginbedmon was a girl until I heard his voice, so I really shouldn't be so picky.)
Now for a point-by point rebuttal in defense of tapir12
1 and 3: plenty of people lurked all day "yesterday." The only victim was Cake, and we can't start a proper investigation based on that until other accusations begin flying around. With two days and three more murders(plus what I'm still sure is a very lucky Vigilante shot), there's a good deal more information available for speculation. Also, you'll note that I've been less active lately. I have less speculation to bring to the table than I did yesterday.
2: So did I.
4: Is simply an observation, but if you look back, you may notice that I was one of the leaders in suspecting Hawkaris, and being one of the louder, more verbose players, my speculation's going to be more visible than that of others. With you and me saying the most, there's little wonder why many of the other players seem to simply mirror our logic.
5: addressed above. She was simply around first.
6: I wouldn't lent much weight to Hawkaris's suspects. As you mentioned, he suspected half of the other players, which is why he fell under suspicion by quarter. I was actually quite surprised to discover he was innocent.
Please note that I never Voted for Beta. I FOS'd him, but thoroughly explained my logic in doing so. It had nothing to do with him encouraging the vote. The only thing we KNOW is that the tastey cakes are being targeted by bland cakes, yes? Many times he referred to himself as "Vanilla" in his post, and to me, that is the very essense of "blandness."
As to whether there is one Mafia or two, that matters not to me, as long as the culprits are identified. However, there are obviously two "evil" sources out there, whether groups or individuals. How else would a mafia have been killed as a night action? I chose to believe the "vanilla vs. chocolate" theory as it seemed to require the more appropriate amount of people/cakes. (As based on past experience and concurred upon via Yuki's post about numbers.)
As for targeting the quiet... I thought I explained that thoroughly as well. Not only is this a very common tactic in Mafia when nothing else is known, I took the time to go back and read the day's correspondence once more and realized the loophole left by Yuki's comment about not targeting the silent. If I were Mafia, I would just follow his guidance and keep my mouth shut, knowing I would be safe for the time being.
As to whether there is one Mafia or two, that matters not to me, as long as the culprits are identified. However, there are obviously two "evil" sources out there, whether groups or individuals. How else would a mafia have been killed as a night action? I chose to believe the "vanilla vs. chocolate" theory as it seemed to require the more appropriate amount of people/cakes. (As based on past experience and concurred upon via Yuki's post about numbers.)
As for targeting the quiet... I thought I explained that thoroughly as well. Not only is this a very common tactic in Mafia when nothing else is known, I took the time to go back and read the day's correspondence once more and realized the loophole left by Yuki's comment about not targeting the silent. If I were Mafia, I would just follow his guidance and keep my mouth shut, knowing I would be safe for the time being.
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NecroVale
- Card-Carrying Cool Person
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2stepz wrote: If I were Mafia, I would just follow his guidance and keep my mouth shut, knowing I would be safe for the time being.
That wouldn't work, there's too many people that spend all their time looking for people who are "too quiet", and would whine and complain and make a fuss until people started noticing, whether or not there was something there to notice.
Also, I don't know how much I trust people who say "If I were Mafia". I mean, it's like you're constantly trying to reassure people that you're not mafia. And you wouldn't need to do that, unless you have something to hide, because, unless there's evidence to the contrary everyone is guilty until proven innocent here.
I'm also kind of wondering what it is you find so fascinating, about the quieter ones. I mean, yes, they're not beneficial, but you've been spending most of your time flushing them out, and saying "Here! Look at these people!" So I have to wonder if you have information you're not sharing, or if they're just useful shields for you to hide behind.
Allen! wrote:I know, it confused and aroused me.
Also made me hate him more.
Yuki why are you so quick do defend her? She only had one vote on her. It's not like she was in immediate danger of being lynched. That seems to me like your scum trying to protect your scum mates Vote: Yuki
Graham wrote:It was less "filler" and more "I'm Morgan! I want to show off my hat! I have sex with dead horses!"
Wow, now this is way more interesting!!!
Joystick, I respect your reasoning and when I wrote my post I expected to get some backlash, but I wanted to shake things up. Please allow me to explain.
(And yes, I am a she, not a he)
1. He pretty much lurked all day yesterday.
Didn't have much to go on yesterday except bad puns, which is not criminal, just tasteless (pun intended)
2. He changed his voting logic dramatically overnight.
I was one of the first, if not the first, to vote for jtaylor, which I did because of his strange comments and I wanted an explanation (exactly the same strategy as I used with 2stepz, so I did not change my strategy) I was actually quite surprised when I awoke from my daily nap to find out he had been lynched. I wanted answers and others seemed to choose an easy target.
3. Is much more active today, although little to no new information has rolled out.
Disagree, we have the deaths to analyse, and the communications that may have lead to said deaths.
4. He said "I can see why Hawkaris might be targeted" in his first post today. That was the ONLY one of the three he mentioned.
I didn't have any explanation for the others deaths, I was just speculating.
5. He made the first post of the day.
This old geezer cake can't sleep until very late at night.
6. There is overlap here and in my 'people who Hawkaris suspected' list. Also minor, but a contributing factor nonetheless.
I don't think this is important.
I am actually curious why Yuki was quick to support me. Thanks, but I'm ok on my own. This cake has been around the block a few times.
also, unvote 2stepz (before we have another accidental lynch train) but I'm still interested. Your actions can be explained, but that might only indicate that they were well planned.
We are still no closer to the truth and dusk is looming. I do not suggest that any remaining masons or friendly vigilantes identify themselves, but I believe the knowledge is out there somewhere to catch the killers.
Joystick, I respect your reasoning and when I wrote my post I expected to get some backlash, but I wanted to shake things up. Please allow me to explain.
(And yes, I am a she, not a he)
1. He pretty much lurked all day yesterday.
Didn't have much to go on yesterday except bad puns, which is not criminal, just tasteless (pun intended)
2. He changed his voting logic dramatically overnight.
I was one of the first, if not the first, to vote for jtaylor, which I did because of his strange comments and I wanted an explanation (exactly the same strategy as I used with 2stepz, so I did not change my strategy) I was actually quite surprised when I awoke from my daily nap to find out he had been lynched. I wanted answers and others seemed to choose an easy target.
3. Is much more active today, although little to no new information has rolled out.
Disagree, we have the deaths to analyse, and the communications that may have lead to said deaths.
4. He said "I can see why Hawkaris might be targeted" in his first post today. That was the ONLY one of the three he mentioned.
I didn't have any explanation for the others deaths, I was just speculating.
5. He made the first post of the day.
This old geezer cake can't sleep until very late at night.
6. There is overlap here and in my 'people who Hawkaris suspected' list. Also minor, but a contributing factor nonetheless.
I don't think this is important.
I am actually curious why Yuki was quick to support me. Thanks, but I'm ok on my own. This cake has been around the block a few times.
also, unvote 2stepz (before we have another accidental lynch train) but I'm still interested. Your actions can be explained, but that might only indicate that they were well planned.
We are still no closer to the truth and dusk is looming. I do not suggest that any remaining masons or friendly vigilantes identify themselves, but I believe the knowledge is out there somewhere to catch the killers.
-OOC: Sorry I was so quiet yesterday...Rock Band happened. Today I may not be around as much as I thought, but I'll try to pop in a few times throughout the day.
-IC:
Excellent work on those posts, Joystick. I need to really mull over that information before I actually throw in a vote, though..
Seems kind of odd to me, personally, that kkief would want this day over so quickly, especially after Joystick worked so hard on his investigation and gave us so much information to consider. But perhaps I'm the only one here who believes that innocent cakes should be spared as best as possible.
After all, if we act recklessly without proper intelligence, we end up no better than the Bland Mafiosos themselves...
OOC: Or Bush. Which I'd like to avoid as best as possible. >_>;
-IC:
Joystick Hero wrote: Many in-depth investigative posts.
Excellent work on those posts, Joystick. I need to really mull over that information before I actually throw in a vote, though..
Seems kind of odd to me, personally, that kkief would want this day over so quickly, especially after Joystick worked so hard on his investigation and gave us so much information to consider. But perhaps I'm the only one here who believes that innocent cakes should be spared as best as possible.
After all, if we act recklessly without proper intelligence, we end up no better than the Bland Mafiosos themselves...
OOC: Or Bush. Which I'd like to avoid as best as possible. >_>;
Consider this signature a museum piece, since I love it and am unlikely to change it ever.
kkief02 wrote:Yuki why are you so quick do defend her? She only had one vote on her. It's not like she was in immediate danger of being lynched. That seems to me like your scum trying to protect your scum mates Vote: Yuki
He was just offering points of contention to Joystick's findings, are you saying he only should of done so after a bunch of votes had been cast against Tapir. To me this seems like you trying to turn us against our fellow cake.
Those dark poppy seeds of mistrust must not be allowed to take hold.
Vote: Kkief02
"I'll be in Africa. If you need me just phone Africa, I told them to expect your call." - The Pointy Haired Boss
We need 8 to lynch, as there are 15 of us not dead yet.
Soon to be 11, I presume.(no doctor, assuming both hitgroups and the vigilante manage to pick different people)
No-kill day is looking like a good prospect at this point. On the one hand, it's quite unlikely that we'll manage to finish off one of the mafia groups, and there's a definite chance of hitting an innocent(though by my estimate, 2 of the 3 favored today look suspicious).
On the other hand, it only reduces the number of killings by 1, and there's still, as I estimated, about a 50% chance of getting a Mafia. Maybe as low as 20%.(My, but that's a large gap...)
Soon to be 11, I presume.(no doctor, assuming both hitgroups and the vigilante manage to pick different people)
No-kill day is looking like a good prospect at this point. On the one hand, it's quite unlikely that we'll manage to finish off one of the mafia groups, and there's a definite chance of hitting an innocent(though by my estimate, 2 of the 3 favored today look suspicious).
On the other hand, it only reduces the number of killings by 1, and there's still, as I estimated, about a 50% chance of getting a Mafia. Maybe as low as 20%.(My, but that's a large gap...)
VOTE: Kkief
Sorry, dear, but...it just seems odd how aggressive you're being. Like you really WANT someone to die today, as if it would hurt you for this to be a no-kill day. Explain, please.
EDIT: While Joystick presented some good theories, Kkief is the only person who I feel is acting especially suspicious today.
Sorry, dear, but...it just seems odd how aggressive you're being. Like you really WANT someone to die today, as if it would hurt you for this to be a no-kill day. Explain, please.
EDIT: While Joystick presented some good theories, Kkief is the only person who I feel is acting especially suspicious today.
Consider this signature a museum piece, since I love it and am unlikely to change it ever.
Dmitri it's called a pressure vote. It's making me even more suspicious of Yuki now because he hasn't replied to my questions, and he's even posted in here since my vote. So far he hasn't even gone after me and you guys are all defending him, I'm wondering what makes you guys trust him so easily.
And Citin the poppy seeds of mistrust are exactly what we need to find scum.
And Citin the poppy seeds of mistrust are exactly what we need to find scum.
Graham wrote:It was less "filler" and more "I'm Morgan! I want to show off my hat! I have sex with dead horses!"
Now that we have a deadline it the pressure is on, Vote: kkief02 the aggressive behaviour she's showing is rather scary for a cake, we're supposed to be sweet after all. I don't like voting with such little information, as this could easily end up being a mistake, however, what happens when she stops going after yuki (dead or alive) FOS'ing everyone not voting at a time when there is just rampant speculation, attacking some one for defending someone he believes to be good. good or bad kkief02 is dangerous to all of us.
I cannot say she is or isn't mafia but she certainly acts in a way that would seem to be wanting us to lynch another townie, because that's likely what we'd get if we just used speculation to cast our votes.
I cannot say she is or isn't mafia but she certainly acts in a way that would seem to be wanting us to lynch another townie, because that's likely what we'd get if we just used speculation to cast our votes.
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Joystick Hero
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Personally, I find it most suspicious that Yukikaze came to tapir12's defense before THEY did. I mean, at that moment no one had come up with conclusive evidence to prove anyone guilty or innocent, and suddenly you're defending a person other than yourself when you shouldn't be able to tell for sure their alignment? Why?
Kkief: sorry, must have missed them.
Joystick: as I've put it with my friends, I tend to think faster than I reason.
Vote train seems to have started for Kkief. I don't like this. On the one hand, Kkief does seem suspicious. On the other hand, I still feel much more strongly about 2Stepz. I'll just throw out a breakdown of my suspicions.(as much for you all as so that I can come back and check later.)
Innocent:
Beta
Joystick
Tak197
Tapier12
The Amitiveness
Not Sure:
Necrovale
Master Gunner(mostly because my gut feeling is tainted by respect for the person, so I'm trying to temper that)
DimitriW
Citin(you seem far too eager to point fingers, even if it was to protect me)
Metacarfe
Kara
Anyone else who hasn't participated in Day 2 yet
Guilty:
2Stepz
Kkief02
There are currently 3 votes for Kkief, and 2 for 2Stepz(unless Tapir unvotes).
And 1 for me
.
We need 8 votes for a lynching.
I'm holding my vote for now. I'll check back around 9:30 MST.
Joystick: as I've put it with my friends, I tend to think faster than I reason.
Vote train seems to have started for Kkief. I don't like this. On the one hand, Kkief does seem suspicious. On the other hand, I still feel much more strongly about 2Stepz. I'll just throw out a breakdown of my suspicions.(as much for you all as so that I can come back and check later.)
Innocent:
Beta
Joystick
Tak197
Tapier12
The Amitiveness
Not Sure:
Necrovale
Master Gunner(mostly because my gut feeling is tainted by respect for the person, so I'm trying to temper that)
DimitriW
Citin(you seem far too eager to point fingers, even if it was to protect me)
Metacarfe
Kara
Anyone else who hasn't participated in Day 2 yet
Guilty:
2Stepz
Kkief02
There are currently 3 votes for Kkief, and 2 for 2Stepz(unless Tapir unvotes).
And 1 for me
.
We need 8 votes for a lynching.
I'm holding my vote for now. I'll check back around 9:30 MST.
Last edited by Yukikaze on 26 Dec 2008, 14:49, edited 3 times in total.
Yukikaze wrote:I'm holding my vote for now, on the chance that Cake doesn't plan on ending the day before 9:30 real-world time.(he and I are in the same time zone.)
You'll be fine. I'm thinking around 11pm or so MST. Unless there is a lot of activity in the game.
Wil Wheaton says "Game over, Moonpie."
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