Loading Ready Fan Draft.

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Under_Score
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Under_Score » 15 Dec 2014, 22:12

Um... I feel like there's a context that I'm missing. What poll are you talking about? Haven't we been doing the polls like 15-30 minutes before the draft starts so its only people there answering?
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Lord Hosk » 15 Dec 2014, 22:17

http://strawpoll.me/3186290

this poll, its been running for awhile and its linked in LRRbot.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Duckay » 15 Dec 2014, 22:19

Is it always the same people each time? It could be that there are people who are not yet sure if they can be there voting in the poll in the hopes that they can make it.

Or people voting multiple times to vote for more than one option because they're happy with multiple things.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby korvys » 15 Dec 2014, 22:23

22 is your maximum, but how many unique people are there? I know I haven't been playing lately, but still do sometimes. Others might come and go. So it's likely to be less than 38 people who actually are voting without every playing. Probably less again, if you consider people who voted, but have not been able to play (due to the time). And unless the remaining votes of non-players all end on one option, they're likely to be spread randomly, or in proportion with the regular votes, so probably haven't thrown it off much at all.

But anyway, if you're worried about it, just make a new poll, and add a Mystery Box option. Most of the joke votes will probably end up there, as well as the votes of people who just want to see the results, and the people who don't actually care.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby AdmiralMemo » 16 Dec 2014, 06:23

korvys wrote:the votes of people who just want to see the results
This makes zero sense. Why would anyone vote just to see the results, when there's a big RESULTS button right there on the page to click?
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Lord Hosk » 16 Dec 2014, 08:21

Because people would rather participate even if they have no interest in participating.

100% of people have a opinion about politics, the Majority dont cast a ballot.

This is the same concept people are expressing an opinion without any plan to participate.

"Mystery Box" gets 50%+ on votes because people are saying "LISTEN TO ME! I have nothing to say"

Whenever you create a poll like this I recommend leaving a "blank"/"Joke" option. the "I dont plan to participate but I wanted to vote anyways" option on my last poll got 64% of the vote.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby AdmiralMemo » 16 Dec 2014, 09:31

So, in summary, most people are stupid, is that it? *shakes head*
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Lord Hosk » 16 Dec 2014, 09:38

Beware Bering Crystal Bears, Bearing Crystals. (Especially if the crystals they are bearing are, themselves, Bering Crystal Bears.) -Old, Stupid Proverb

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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby AdmiralMemo » 16 Dec 2014, 09:40

I was actually thinking that exact thing as I typed my comment. It's one of my life mottos to go by.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Duckay » 16 Dec 2014, 15:05

Okay... this is starting to make me feel a little uncomfortable.

I've never managed to attend a fan draft before. But I voted in the poll anyway because I was interested and I thought that doing something involved in it would make my brain earmark the time and day so I could attend this time if the stars aligned. I'm getting the impression now that you would rather I not have done that because I've never attended before? I don't know if that means I'm not welcome to attend, though. Can someone clear that up for me?

It's actually totally fair enough if this draft is only for people who have been involved in past drafts, so I'm sorry for messing up your thing.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Lord Hosk » 16 Dec 2014, 15:15

The draft and the poll arent only for people who have played in the past, however it is intended for people who are planning to play. If you are going to make an attempt to play, or if you are going to make an attempt to play if your choice wins, then the poll is for you.

I find it unlikely that all the people who voted have any intention to or interested in playing especially considering that the current results are almost triple the peak participation and double the total people who have ever played.

I am interested in the opinions of people who want to play in this event, im not interested in people voting just because they saw a straw poll in twitch chat, which the numbers seem to indicate.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby CommiePuddin » 16 Dec 2014, 15:51

For those who might enjoy a cube draft for Saturday's adventure, if you haven't logged in since American Thanksgiving (end of November), do so before downtime tonight so you can get 16 free phantom points, which conveniently pays for one cube draft.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby CommiePuddin » 16 Dec 2014, 15:56

And, for the record, I voted and have every intention of showing up (and streaming it, particularly if we go cube first).
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby MowDownJoe » 16 Dec 2014, 16:07

I'll definitely show up for the cube draft. I can't say no to a free cube draft.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Duckay » 16 Dec 2014, 17:15

I guess the thing is that complaining about the fact that more people have voted than typically play puts people on the spot (especially people who don't routinely play). I can only speak for myself, obviously, but it feels like a bit of pressure - in the sense that now if I can't make it, I'm one of those "stupid people" who voted and didn't play, no matter what the reason for my lack of attendance was.

Mostly what made me uncomfortable, though, was not the original complaint, but the fact that genuine suggestions for why that could have happened were ignored in favour of "people are stupid".
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby AdmiralMemo » 17 Dec 2014, 07:03

OK, here's the thing: If you voted and you intend to play, but don't end up playing for whatever reason, it's not a problem. It's only if you're voting with no intention of actually playing that it's a problem.

Imagine reserving a party at a restaurant. If you talk with people and have a plan and reserve a party of 20, and 18 show up, it's fine. Things happen. Things can carry on. However, if you reserve a party of 60 and 18 show up, it's a problem.

The key thing Hosk is going on about with this poll is that if 60 people vote, and most of them don't show up, you could end up with a majority voting for things, and a decision is made to play something that the majority of the 18 that do show up don't actually want. It wouldn't be fairly-balanced regarding the people who actually play.

Say, for example, that most of the people who show up want to play Khans, then Cube. Well, going by the current poll, we're going to play 2 Cubes instead, based on what more than 20 people who don't intend to play voted for. Most of the people playing wouldn't want to play 2 Cubes, in that instance, but the people in the poll who aren't here said we're doing it, so we're doing it, and everyone's not as satisfied as they could have been.

4 or 5 extra votes for things is fine. It wouldn't skew the majority off too much. 40 extra votes for things is a problem.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby AdmiralMemo » 17 Dec 2014, 09:22

CommiePuddin wrote:For those who might enjoy a cube draft for Saturday's adventure, if you haven't logged in since American Thanksgiving (end of November), do so before downtime tonight so you can get 16 free phantom points, which conveniently pays for one cube draft.
Dangit. MtGO says the servers are down. Did I miss it?
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby CommiePuddin » 17 Dec 2014, 09:30

AdmiralMemo wrote:
CommiePuddin wrote:For those who might enjoy a cube draft for Saturday's adventure, if you haven't logged in since American Thanksgiving (end of November), do so before downtime tonight so you can get 16 free phantom points, which conveniently pays for one cube draft.
Dangit. MtGO says the servers are down. Did I miss it?

You fan drafted on Dec. 7, at least (based on your twitch videos), so you're good.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Duckay » 17 Dec 2014, 12:16

AdmiralMemo wrote:OK, here's the thing: If you voted and you intend to play, but don't end up playing for whatever reason, it's not a problem. It's only if you're voting with no intention of actually playing that it's a problem.

Imagine reserving a party at a restaurant. If you talk with people and have a plan and reserve a party of 20, and 18 show up, it's fine. Things happen. Things can carry on. However, if you reserve a party of 60 and 18 show up, it's a problem.

The key thing Hosk is going on about with this poll is that if 60 people vote, and most of them don't show up, you could end up with a majority voting for things, and a decision is made to play something that the majority of the 18 that do show up don't actually want. It wouldn't be fairly-balanced regarding the people who actually play.

Say, for example, that most of the people who show up want to play Khans, then Cube. Well, going by the current poll, we're going to play 2 Cubes instead, based on what more than 20 people who don't intend to play voted for. Most of the people playing wouldn't want to play 2 Cubes, in that instance, but the people in the poll who aren't here said we're doing it, so we're doing it, and everyone's not as satisfied as they could have been.

4 or 5 extra votes for things is fine. It wouldn't skew the majority off too much. 40 extra votes for things is a problem.


And yet there were a couple of comments suggesting other reasons why the numbers could be faulty, which were ignored... I'm not saying that every one of the extra votes can be accounted for by other means, just that I think it's fair to acknowledge that there is no reason to suggest that every single person over the 22 that showed up for the biggest event were voting for no other reason than to skew your numbers. And definitely no reason to think that every "extra" person voted for the same "wrong" option.

ETA: Or, let me put it another way. Let's say 25 people regularly attend fan drafts (though not every week). Each of those 25 people vote. But 5 of them vote twice, because they forgot they already voted or wanted to vote for multiple options and didn't think about it. That brings the number to 30. 10 people don't regularly show up, but think they might this time, so they vote. Two of them vote multiple times, bringing the number up to 42. Five people vote absentmindedly because they want to see the results, making 47. Then maybe 10 people vote just to be silly. 3 people vote because they probably won't make it, but might.

That seems just as realistic to me as 22 "real" votes and 38 "stupid" votes. I'm not saying that my numbers are definitively true, just that there's a lot of options unaccounted for by "people are stupid", and putting it all down to stupidity puts people on edge.

The dinner party comparison doesn't quite work, because you can't accidentally RSVP twice, but you can accidentally vote in a poll twice.

Look, I don't want to make it into a big thing. I shouldn't have said anything in the first place.

Realistically, after all this I probably won't end up attending because I have no interest in cube, so this is all a moot point from my perspective.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby AdmiralMemo » 17 Dec 2014, 14:53

OK, Duckay... I think you're making a big deal out of nothing, for one, and two, you're misinterpreting what we're saying. First, we're not lumping all the votes together.

There's 3 groups represented in these votes:

1. People who vote, intend to play, and actually do play.
2. People who vote, intend to play, but fail to make it.
3. People who vote, but never intended to play.

Obviously, Category 1 is not a problem.
Category 2 is an issue, but what Hosk was saying is that the closer to the time of drafting the poll starts, the smaller that amount will be. Those people are fine, and we're glad they intended to come. However, if the poll started later than it did, and wasn't up and advertised for several days, then there would be less of these votes. Category 2 is a mere logistical problem in when is best to get the most accurate numbers for who's coming. If you plan for something next week, things can come up and you might not make it. If you plan for something tomorrow, it's much more likely that you'll make it.

It's Category 3 that I twigged on in Korvys' post. People who vote but don't intend to play at all are just screwing up the system intentionally. Those, and those alone, are who I labeled as "stupid" voters. If you vote and you have absolutely no plans on coming to the draft, you need to have your head examined and stop messing things up for everyone.
But, I'm not labeling everyone who doesn't make it to the draft as "stupid" here, to be clear. Just the people who vote with no intention of coming.
It's the 10 "silly" votes and the 5 "absentminded" votes we're concerned with. Those 15 should just not vote.

Also, you mention voting multiple times. You can't do that with Straw Polls, unless you're on multiple computers. So those 7 "multivotes" probably won't happen. Maybe more like 2 or 3.

So, in your scenario, there would be 38 legit votes and 15 bogus votes. That seems more realistic to me. If the 15 bogus votes didn't vote, I think the 38 legit votes would be enough to say what the group should do, even if only 22 show up.

Anyway, I say we just scrap this poll and start a new one on Friday night after the Let's Nope. Maybe the actual majority of people will choose something other than Cube, and then you can attend, Duckay. For the longest while, it was "Cube, then Khans" that was leading, so if you like Khans, there may be a chance for you to join.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby korvys » 17 Dec 2014, 15:30

The point of my post was that extra votes probably don't matter, regardless of the motivation of the voters.

Assuming there is no external motivation ("hey, everyone vote for X, it will be funny"), and no maliciousness ("Everyone hates X, so I'll vote for that"), the "extra" votes would be distributed randomly (if the voter doesn't care), or in proportion with everyone else (if they do).

There is no reason to think the results are inaccurate.

A new poll is another option, but what are the chances the same people who play in the draft will just happen to be online when you set up the poll?

I play in the draft sometimes, but tend to watch replays rather than watch streams live, so am almost never in the chat, and usually only log on just before the draft, if I'm playing. I didn't even know there was a poll.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Duckay » 17 Dec 2014, 15:31

I'd appreciate it it you acknowledged that I said I didn't want to make it into a big deal and said I shouldn't have said anything before you jumped on me for making a big deal out of it.

It doesn't matter now. I was concerned about legitimate votes being ignored, I made it sound like a bigger deal than it should have been, and I backed down. Surely that's all that needs to happen.

ETA: Just to be clear, I'm not angry at anyone, I am not trying to indicate anything malicious here, nothing of the sort. I am just trying to clearly state that I feel like I had a legitimate point to make which I inadvertently made look like a bigger deal than necessary and I had already acknowledged that I was wrong to do so at the time that AdmiralMemo stated that I was making a big deal out of nothing. My point in this post was simply to reiterate that and say that I felt like it was unnecessary for him to call me out when I had already called myself out.

I am not trying to kick up a fuss. I was trying to make a point and I did not mean for it to become a big deal and I would have been better served simply not saying anything.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Wooglie » 17 Dec 2014, 16:45

I think I'm around this week and would love a fan cube draft, especially a free one. Probably won't be able to make two though.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby AdmiralMemo » 17 Dec 2014, 20:01

Sorry for jumping on you, Duckay. You sounded really pissed off to me, so I was trying to explain it better to clear things up.
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Re: Loading Ready Fan Draft.

Postby Duckay » 18 Dec 2014, 15:57

And yet you so often ask me why I feel the need to include caveats about my emotional state or intentions. ^^

Let me just reiterate: I'm sorry to everyone in this thread for derailing the conversation so long. I was wrong to say anything about the poll, and I hope you can all carry on with your drafting without me poking my nose in and fucking it all up in the future.

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